Will Carrick Flynn win the Democratic primary for Oregon's 6th District?
Basic
42
Ṁ5302
resolved May 19
Resolved
NO
The Effective Altruism movement usually stays out of politics, but here is a recent, highly-upvoted endorsement of donating to Carrick Flynn as a high-impact area: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Qi9nnrmjwNbBqWbNT/the-best-usd5-800-i-ve-ever-donated-to-pandemic-prevention Further reading: https://ballotpedia.org/Oregon%27s_6th_Congressional_District_election,_2022 #EffectiveAltruism #Politics
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45% is almost certainly undervalued?
Arb: https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/will-carrick-flynn-win-the-democrat-87caaa864015 Related: https://manifold.markets/MatthewBarnett/who-will-win-the-democratic-primary

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