Will Russia close their borders before March 11th?
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Ṁ2.4Kresolved Mar 12
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See also https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10080/russian-border-closure-by-april-2022/ . I'll be roughly using their definition for border close: reputable news source reports significant e.g. >2% restriction, e.g. males of conscript age.
Prompted by Alexey Guzey's alarming warning: https://buttondown.email/guzey/archive/4-independent-sources-i-have-say-that-the-russian/
via Google Translate: "For the Russians, the exit will be blocked very soon. First, for men, some military age, then for everyone
Consider going straight to any open country (except Belarus). Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Mongolia and the list goes on. Now there is still such an opportunity, but it will be blocked quickly and without warning.
If you want or consider it your duty to stay in the Russian Federation, this is your choice. But if you don’t want to live in this, you need to get out immediately, it’s better today
The position of the Russian Federation is much worse than in the Cold War. Complete hell can come suddenly and without warning. As for the economic collapse, it is guaranteed. I can bet on this quite confidently, because the sanctions steamroller has already set off. Western state apparatuses are more mechanistic, and therefore more subject to institutional inertia than the Russian one. It is difficult to move them from their place, but once moved, they go, go, go, and so on for a very long time. Because it is difficult not only to start them, but also to stop them, there is no person who could give such an order
If you want to leave, leave immediately, the sooner the better, to any open country except Belarus. It doesn’t make sense to ask the price for a long time which is better, the main thing is to cross the border, and then we’ll see. Kazakhstan and others are unlikely to block the exit, but the Russian Federation will. If you have not yet decided where and what to do next, you can go to Istanbul - this is the largest hub and from there they fly to almost all countries
As you cross, you can think about further actions. They understandably depend on your finances, skills, network and many related circumstances.
This is a recommendation that I can give to anyone who is thinking about leaving. As for more specific considerations, I'm not ready to make them public yet (subscribers can look here (https://www.patreon.com/posts/63248958)). But unlike all the other sealed texts, I will open this one as soon as I deem it possible.
For those who want to leave but do not know the situation on the ground - here is a list of Russian-language telegram chats in 105 countries of the world. You can read and if something is not clear, clarify the details with those who are already there https://telegra.ph/chat360-10-14"
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