Will our firstborn be a girl?
Aug 1

Resolves YES if Rachel and my first child is born female.

Get Ṁ600 play money
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bought Ṁ50 YES at 89%
bought Ṁ40 of NO

All 3 of me + siblings were born male, which I think is evidence for increased likelihood of males since sex is determined by the father? My dad"s sibling cohort is 2 men/1 women too. (I've done zero research into the science of this and am just guessing based on half-remembered high school bio)

are we betting on a current, yet-to-be-born baby (congrats!), or a theoretic one that's not yet conceived (good luck!)?

this matters to me and influences my decision for some reason 😅

predicts NO

@shankypanky there is a current yet-to-be-born baby (thanks!), but I'm only 11 weeks along—in the unlikely scenario where I have a miscarriage, this one won't count as first born since miscarriages aren't generally referred to as "births".

(I'm actually not sure how this market is supposed to resolve in the case of a full-term stillborn? That's up to Austin, though I really hope it's never relevant.)

@rachel okay thanks for the insights! I hope most of the things above aren't a consideration at all and you have a smooth pregnancy and delivery! 🧡

do you plan to hold out until delivery day to learn the gender or will you let them tell you during an ultrasound at some point?

bought Ṁ15 of NO

Jeez this feels like one of those old coinflip markets.

bought Ṁ0 of NO

Wish you both all the best!

bought Ṁ100 of YES

Hope your baby and its mother are healthy regardless of gender, but it's gonna be a girl.

I hope your first born is a masculine child!