Will Manifold for Charity get accepted to YCombinator W24?
resolved Nov 18

We've been considering applying for the W24 batch, specifically for our nonprofit (Manifold for Charity, aka Manifund). If we apply, will we get accepted?

Reasons we'd like to participate:

  • Everyone says the network is great; in our case we'd specifically like to meet potential tech-y donors

  • Would be nice to try the heads-down sprint thing

  • Branding, obv

  • It's been a longtime dream of Austin's

  • They apparently give $100k grants to nonprofits, free money is nice

Why we might get accepted:

Why we might not:

  • Apparently acceptance rate among nonprofits is super low; my friend Shawn says there's something like 1-2 nonprofits among current batch of 60 (offhand, don't quote him/me on this)

  • Manifold did get rejected when we applied in Dec 2021 (though, that was before we'd shipped our MVP!)

This market is conditional on us applying; resolves N/A if we decide not to apply.

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predicted YES

Got a form rejection =( Perhaps next time!

@Austin thank you for making the effort 💪

predicted NO

@Austin The most bittersweet market resolution for me

predicted YES

@Austin "you miss 100% of the shots you don't take" -- good luck with any future submission!

predicted NO

@Austin Sorry to hear! Good luck next time!

bought Ṁ10 of NO

@Austin have you heard from them yet? IIRC they invite group on a rolling basis now

predicted YES

@42irrationalist not yet! I think final deadline is mid Nov but it's probably a bad sign if we haven't heard back yet

predicted YES

Our application is here: https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/YC-W24-Application-b39634e841b84fb48c71b26bd6a0fd01?pvs=4

We'll be submitting soon but would love any feedback or comments you have (either here, or directly on Notion!)

predicted YES

@Austin I'm curious about the mention of incubation near the end, do you imagine Manifund having a formal incubator/accelerator? If not, that could be an interesting longer term option/supplement for revenue (idk how the math works out though).

predicted YES

@georgeyw yeah that's one of my dreams, literally try making YC for longtermist charities. We didn't quite get it together for the ACX Minigrants, but maybe for the next ACX Grants round?

There are a few similar projects in EA (SERI MATS and Charity Entrepreneurship come to mind), and it's possible we should instead partner with them (where we provide the certs/payments backend, and they run the incubator program)

predicted NO

@Austin Glad to see you are applying!

Some comments:
0. My judgement might be superficial (I don't understand charitable giving), but from reading the application it feels like you know what you are doing and that you compress ideas well!
1. I feel like Manifold and its relation to Manifund could be described more clearly. Perhaps Manifold could also be described earlier in the application.
1a. "Manifold’s doing well as a for-profit startup" — numbers would be good here (revenue, funding, runway, employees number, etc).
2. When you mention Scott Alexander — would it be useful to describe in a few words who he is? I suspect the partners would know, but just in case?
3. "I threw a festival headlining" — maybe describe in a few words what the festival is about to make it more clear? Also, isn't Manifold a much more impressive thing than Manifest?

predicted YES

@42irrationalist thanks for the feedback!

  1. The form asks for something impressive "other than this startup"; it seemed like Manifold plausibly wouldn't count while Manifest might 😝

predicted NO

@Austin Fingers crossed you win my mana! :-P

3. Got it, makes sense! I thought Manifold could count as an "other than this startup [Manifund]" .

bought Ṁ200 of NO

@Austin How's finalizing the draft and submitting it going?

bought Ṁ50 of NO

@georgeyw Excellent, thank you for the pointer!

bought Ṁ45 of YES

I did S21, happy to recommend you

predicted YES

@Reality Thank you! I'm not really sure how recommendation works, lmk if you need anything from us to make this happen

predicted YES

@Austin I’ll reach out privately

predicted YES

@Reality thanks! My email is austin@manifold.markets if you (or anyone) ever wants to reach out

predicted YES

@Austin msged on Twitter


@Austin Limit order at 40%? The suspense intensifies: did you apply, got accepted and is now farming mana from unsuspecting betters?

predicted YES

@42irrationalist no, I'm just updating from the success of Manifest, I think that bolsters the Manifund application

predicted NO

@Austin Cool! I am starting to root for losing my mana!


@LukeHanks Another Anime Villain enters the stage!