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Resolving to 50/50 between manifoldpolitics.com and manifold.markets

• manifoldpolitics.com is closer to the original intention of the question when I posed it, a standalone site with a different URL. it's also what was trading near 100% when I closed the market

• manifold.markets/elections had the majority of the traffic on Feb 1, and had been trading near 100% on Jan 31

Gah. I could have asked for clarification weeks ago but I didn't think to do it. And then I assumed the staff would not resolve a giant market in a way that causes so much grief, but that assumption doesn't actually make sense and was very foolish to base a bet on.

Protip, people. Don't bet big on markets with ambiguous wording. RIP

Exhibit A - Barak announces the toggle that you flip to add things to the politics site:

Exhibit B - I flip this toggle on the question "Will Donald Trump be convicted of a felony before the 2024 presidential election?":

Exhibit C The question is now listed on the politics site, https://www.manifoldpolitics.com/browse :

Exhibit D - Other markets found through the dashboards on the politics site without this toggle flipped are listed as "unofficial":

Exhibit E - The market whose toggle I flipped does not have this warning, as it is now an official part of the official politics site:

Exhibit F - No change to the US Elections sidebar page through all of this:

I believe that ManifoldPolitics.com is the URL being used for the main version of the site.

@Joshua too bad it's feb 2nd

@NathanBraun This was all true yesterday! And Austin said below

The original close time was Feb 1 just before midnight, which I think is a reasonable operationalization for what point in time to use for "what URL is the main version".

So that'd be midnight PST of last night at the end of the 1st, by which time the site was up and running.

Meanwhile, per Barak the editor-in-chief of manifold politics:

@Joshua Ha I know I was joking -- seems like a huge cluster

https://manifold.markets/NathanBraun/will-someone-who-works-at-manifold?r=TmF0aGFuQnJhdW4

@SG @ian @barak is manifoldpolitics.com a demo, as stated here?

@nikki It certainly looks like a demo

@IngaWei

@nikki "Demo" is just what that section of the meeting notes is called every day though. It's where they talk about new things they're launching. They have now launched manifoldpolitics.com, IMO.

@Joshua Like I don't know why SG would have Ian do this today if not to resolve this market to that option. The politifold trolling by Ian was funny but put us all in a chaotic mindframe, whereas if they had just launched the site and said "this is the name for now" then we'd all agree this should be manifoldpolitics.com, right? Even with the trolling, the market bought it to 98% . I only bought it to 80% bc I was wary they might take manifoldpolitics.com down, but it's still up so now we're all just arguing for profit lol

@Joshua Buying it to 98% was dumb.

Signed,
No holder.

@Joshua I think 80-20 is ridiculous. The market description heavily implies according to what the URL is when the day begins!

@Tumbles I mean, Austin said below it was "at market close" which was tonight just before midnight. But overall, the actual point of this market was to propose alternative names to manifoldpolitics.

We have failed to propose anything they like more, so it sounds like SG has chosen to stick with ManifoldPolitics for now. I was the guy who submitted manifold.markets, and I was betting on that until SG started betting against it and betting on Manfoldpolitics, implying he was intending to get the site up by the deadline of midnight tonight.

After that I started hedging, expecting he might do exactly this and put it up on the last day. And he did! So I am hoping that my prediction of that will be profitable.

@Joshua I don't see where Austin said at market close! I was trading based on the description

@Tumbles here:

I agree that if the deadline was supposed to be midnight yesterday, that should have been the close date. It was open through today bc changes today matter, which is why we've all been buying and selling through this chaos

@Joshua The description would imply that trades made today are just eating up liquidity, since the resolution criteria in the description was already met

@Tumbles I mean the description uses "on", which I think is most often used for "at the end of" and that's how everyone was trading. We're very deep into the weeds though. Hopefully this much mana at stake encourages making a final decision!

It's like when you toss a coin to make a choice and then you realize what you want the choice to be.

Demos in the meeting notes is for things that get presented (demonstrated) in the meeting

Hm, I haven't made a final determination on how to resolve this market, though as of right now I think 50/50 between manifoldpolitics.com and manifold.markets would be reasonable.

The original close time was Feb 1 just before midnight, which I think is a reasonable operationalization for what point in time to use for "what URL is the main version". In the meantime I've closed this market to trading since further speculation feels more like noise than signal.

Note that I'm not particularly involved in choosing what the URL will be (that's mostly @SG @ian and others who work directly on the politics site).

@Austin If we're considering % resolutions, I'll note that Ian's followup market is at 80% manifoldpolitics.com since that's what we mostly think the URL is going to be. Maybe resolve 80/20?

@Austin Maybe we can get a clarification from the people involved about the intent of the new deployment to manifoldpolitics.com. If it's an experimental deployment, I think it should not resolve to it.

@Austin as a side note, I think "pressure to resolve markets before the leagues end" is a bad dynamic, but I'm kinda biased against the whole concept of leagues in the first place so shrug

@Austin manifoldmarkets might what the URL was going to be, but on Feb 1st the URL was still manifold.markets!!!! And that's what was written in the description