Thanks again for hosting! I thought this was great.

why is the proability at close not at 90%+? I would have assumed that participants can just count the number of heads and bet. I literally just bet according to ian and chris who seems to be in the hackathon.

@SavioMak they were distracted by a marathon of hacking away maybe?

@Austin In case you repeat this in the future, can I signup to be notified somehow? I just saw this and would have loved to have joined. 🙏

@Austin let us in we’re here

Text/call me at 408-334-1853 if you have trouble getting in!

2,500 Manifold Bounty - We think an AI safety quiz would be a good addition to aisafety.info. The quiz will let users test their knowledge of AI safety and get an "alignment" score :) . Currently, our database of questions has long form answers like this:

I think the first step to creating a quiz for users would be to use an LLM to summarize our answers, and to generate similar but incorrect answers for a multiple choice quiz. You also might need to keep track of the user somehow, so that they can continue the quiz if they refresh. Currently we track state in the url. We will reward the bounty when we approve your pull request on github. This is pretty open ended, so you can design things how you see fit: how the user gets to the quiz, what the quiz looks like, etc. Code is here : https://github.com/StampyAI/stampy-ui

GitHub - StampyAI/stampy-ui: AI Safety Q&A web frontend

AI Safety Q&A web frontend. Contribute to StampyAI/stampy-ui development by creating an account on GitHub.

A trivial stub for a silly project https://github.com/quinn-dougherty/org-bet

GitHub - quinn-dougherty/org-bet: I wanted to use Manifold Markets in emacs, because of my diseases and conditions.

I wanted to use Manifold Markets in emacs, because of my diseases and conditions. - GitHub - quinn-dougherty/org-bet: I wanted to use Manifold Markets in emacs, because of my diseases and conditions.

I think the github action will be easy enough that I can MVP fatebook in emacs with the rest of the day after I finish that up. chatgpt is pretty good at elisp-- it got me reading managrams with a GET in like 40 minutes or so (not counting parsing json into some org display)

@Quinn Update: Morpheus (manifold tagging isn't working?) has already rolled fatebook https://github.com/sonofhypnos/fatebook.el -- i want something more for org and extensible to manifold tho so i'll probably duplicate work

GitHub - sonofhypnos/fatebook.el: An Emacs package to create predictions on Fatebook

An Emacs package to create predictions on Fatebook - GitHub - sonofhypnos/fatebook.el: An Emacs package to create predictions on Fatebook

Hey friends,

We're (small team of volunteers) implementing a recently finalized design of AIsafety.com using Webflow, and we (very, very much) need some help from brilliant people like you.

I created a task list–each one should take 1–3 hours each. I'll scope out each task more, and find a time tomorrow to get on a call for a quick onboarding. But first I want to see if anyone's interested.

I plan on attending!

@OzzieGooen Also, can help with any potential Squiggle/Guesstimate/etc related projects

I think I'll be able to knock this out https://github.com/quinn-dougherty/epistemics-webdev-projects/issues/6 -- would love to pair with someone / trio or more. I've never written a github action before but how hard could it be

[project board meta] github action bot to issue manifold questions about whether a volunteer will complete a task · Issue #6 · quinn-dougherty/epistemics-webdev-projects

Hopefully iframes can load in github issues/PR comments. Some kind of on-assign trigger should hit the manifold API to say "will volunteer xyz do project 123 by $date"

Browse some other folks' ideas on the epistemics-webdev-projects board! Most of what's written down so far are mine, feel free to file issues with what you'd like to be built or to declare intent to build yourself (so others can know to collab with you)

https://github.com/quinn-dougherty/epistemics-webdev-projects

GitHub - quinn-dougherty/epistemics-webdev-projects: Believing true things and measuring what we care about is hard. The power of web programming can help forecasters, analysts, philosophers, and philanthropists coordinate on what they believe and value, identify disagreements, communicate with peers and the general public, make bets, and update their worldviews in response to evidence.

Believing true things and measuring what we care about is hard. The power of web programming can help forecasters, analysts, philosophers, and philanthropists coordinate on what they believe and value, identify disagreements, communicate with peers and the general public, make bets, and update their worldviews in response to evidence. - GitHub - quinn-dougherty/epistemics-webdev-projects: Believing true things and measuring what we care about is hard. The power of web programming can help forecasters, analysts, philosophers, and philanthropists coordinate on what they believe and value, identify disagreements, communicate with peers and the general public, make bets, and update their worldviews in response to evidence.

@Quinn FYI, Fatebook is open to contributions if anyone wants to have a go! Feel free to DM me on the Sage Discord if you want to chat about ideas/implementation

GitHub - Sage-Future/fatebook: The fastest way to make and track predictions

The fastest way to make and track predictions. Contribute to Sage-Future/fatebook development by creating an account on GitHub.