How many blog posts will lsusr write in 30 days? [% * 20]

Basic

Ṁ141

resolved Jul 1

Resolved as

30%

ALL

lsusr just came out with a huge list of blog post ideas: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ycdReQq6yPw69q5Ha/here-s-a-list-of-some-of-my-ideas-for-blog-posts Bet on how many new posts he'll write! I'll resolve this market to the number of blog posts listed on https://www.lsusr.com/, that have been added between this market's creation and resolution. Aka number of posts listed above "Here's a List of Some of my Ideas for Blog Posts". Resolving to (number of posts / 20), e.g. if he writes 15 posts this market resolves to 75%. If more than 20, this market resolves to 100% aka YES.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

Get

1,000

and

3.00

6 Comments

5 Holders

8 Trades

Sort by:

predicted NO

Blog posts written: - Enlightenment - Dagger of Detect Evil - To what extent have ideas and scientific discoveries gotten harder to find? - The Mountain Troll - The Burden of Worldbuilding - Silliness

His ideas are great, I doubt, however, he is the best one to implement them.

Selling, There has only been 1 blog post since the creation of this market. @Austin: What was most recent post (=last post not counted) on market creation? https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ycdReQq6yPw69q5Ha/here-s-a-list-of-some-of-my-ideas-for-blog-posts and the creation of this market are on the same day depending on timezone.

It's been 9-11 in the last 30 days (didn't look at the timestamps), but 14.8 per 30 days since 2020-11-19 (semi-random date).

I'm also a lsusr fan, but am here to make some money from your hedge!

According to https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LsyuX5rLsApZFdQGp/bet-on-rare-undesirable-outcomes-when-seeding-a-prediction, I should bet on outcomes that are undesirable. Having fewer lsusr blog posts would be undesirable, so I'm betting on it!

Related questions

Related questions