lsusr just came out with a huge list of blog post ideas: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ycdReQq6yPw69q5Ha/here-s-a-list-of-some-of-my-ideas-for-blog-posts
Bet on how many new posts he'll write! I'll resolve this market to the number of blog posts listed on https://www.lsusr.com/, that have been added between this market's creation and resolution. Aka number of posts listed above "Here's a List of Some of my Ideas for Blog Posts".
Resolving to (number of posts / 20), e.g. if he writes 15 posts this market resolves to 75%. If more than 20, this market resolves to 100% aka YES.
💬 Proven correct
Selling, There has only been 1 blog post since the creation of this market.
@Austin: What was most recent post (=last post not counted) on market creation? https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ycdReQq6yPw69q5Ha/here-s-a-list-of-some-of-my-ideas-for-blog-posts and the creation of this market are on the same day depending on timezone.
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Milli made M$7!
Blog posts written:
- Enlightenment
- Dagger of Detect Evil
- To what extent have ideas and scientific discoveries gotten harder to find?
- The Mountain Troll
- The Burden of Worldbuilding
- Silliness
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His ideas are great, I doubt, however, he is the best one to implement them.
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Selling, There has only been 1 blog post since the creation of this market.
@Austin: What was most recent post (=last post not counted) on market creation? https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ycdReQq6yPw69q5Ha/here-s-a-list-of-some-of-my-ideas-for-blog-posts and the creation of this market are on the same day depending on timezone.
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It's been 9-11 in the last 30 days (didn't look at the timestamps), but 14.8 per 30 days since 2020-11-19 (semi-random date).
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I'm also a lsusr fan, but am here to make some money from your hedge!
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According to https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LsyuX5rLsApZFdQGp/bet-on-rare-undesirable-outcomes-when-seeding-a-prediction, I should bet on outcomes that are undesirable. Having fewer lsusr blog posts would be undesirable, so I'm betting on it!
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A trader bought M$2 of YES from 41% to 42%
2 months ago
A trader bought M$30 of NO from 53% to 41%
2 months ago
A trader sold M$15 of YES from 60% to 53%
3 months ago
A trader bought M$20 of YES from 52% to 60%
3 months ago
A trader bought M$14 of YES from 45% to 52%
3 months ago
A trader bought M$10 of YES from 40% to 45%
3 months ago
A trader bought M$10 of YES from 34% to 40%
3 months ago
A trader bought M$40 of NO from 50% to 34%
3 months ago
Play-money betting
Mana (M$) is the play-money used by our platform to keep track of your bets. It's completely free for you and your friends to get started!