This resolves to YES if Tiktok is banned in the US or forced to change ownership by any US government action by the closing date (Dec 31 2023). This includes any US government action that makes it more difficult for TikTok to operate in the US without changing ownership but does not include the case where TikTok preemptively decides to change ownership without any actual action on the part of any US government action. "US government action" is defined to include both Federal and State-level actions including changes in rules or legislation, executive orders, and lawsuits brought by a US government entity. This also includes federal-level audits and US government changes to the economic playing field that are specifically targetted at TikTok. The edge case where legislation has been set in motion but has not passed yet counts as YES if it seems like it has the votes to pass and NO if it doesn't (based off of my best assessment at the time). This also resolves to YES even if the ban is subsequently challenged in courts as long as the ban would take place without a successfuly challenge though note that "banned in the US" means banned for all users in the US (so for example only for one state or only for government employees doesn't meet the criterion).

Mar 31, 1:00pm: Will TikTok be banned in the US or forced to change ownership? → Will TikTok be banned in the US or forced to change ownership in 2023?