Astro Naught's calibration
Grade: B, Score: -2.21
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Astro Naught bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
10%
20%
30%
- Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?NOṀ100
- Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?NOṀ86
- Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?NOṀ85
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
95%
- Will Destiny's video "Destiny Gets Into Extremely Good Faith Debate And It's On The Twitter Files" reach 80k views or more by 2/28 9 A.M.?YESṀ100
- Will any of Destiny's YouTube video posted in March get 5k comments or more within the same month?YESṀ100
- Will any of Destiny's YouTube video posted in March get 5k comments or more within the same month?YESṀ100
97%
- Will Destiny's video "Destiny Gets Into Extremely Good Faith Debate And It's On The Twitter Files" reach 80k views or more by 2/28 9 A.M.?YESṀ600
- Will Destiny's video "Destiny Gets Into Extremely Good Faith Debate And It's On The Twitter Files" reach 80k views or more by 2/28 9 A.M.?YESṀ100
- Will any of Destiny's YouTube video posted in March get 5k comments or more within the same month?YESṀ100