Aryaman Arora's calibration
Grade: B-, Score: -3.71
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Aryaman Arora bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
20%
40%
50%
60%
70%
- Will I think running the Redwood Research Mechanistic Interpretability Experiment (REMIX) was +EV on March 1st 2023?YESṀ100
- Will Buck think running the Redwood Research Mechanistic Interpretability Experiment (REMIX) was +EV on March 1st 2023?YESṀ100
- Will Buck think running the Redwood Research Mechanistic Interpretability Experiment (REMIX) was +EV on March 1st 2023?YESṀ100
80%
- Will Buck think running the Redwood Research Mechanistic Interpretability Experiment (REMIX) was +EV on March 1st 2023?YESṀ100
- Will I think running the Redwood Research Mechanistic Interpretability Experiment (REMIX) was +EV on March 1st 2023?YESṀ40
- Will Buck think running the Redwood Research Mechanistic Interpretability Experiment (REMIX) was +EV on March 1st 2023?YESṀ25