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@ArnaudAlpere

There seems no doubt per https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/?dm_id=world

Resolve please.

Want to bet on how hot?

https://manifold.markets/ChristopherRandles/resolves-probgisstemp-global-mean-l

Resolves PROB=(Gisstemp global mean LOTI anomaly vs 1951-80 for July+Aug+Sept 2023 -270)

71% chance. Latest version of NASA's Gistemp Land ocean Temperature index (LOTI) will be used. This is currently v4 available at https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt or https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/T_AIRS/GLB.Ts+dSST.csv The formula will be capped at 0 and 100 as the claim cannot be resolved outside this range. If necessary, the anomalies are to be converted to 0.01C amounts. Examples July 2023 120 August 2023 110 September 2023 105 Then 120+110+105-270=65 so the claim resolves with PROB = 65% July 2023 140 August 2023 130 September 2023 120 Then 140+130+120-270=120 which is above 100 so the claim is capped and resolves with PROB = 100% In the csv file, temperature anomalies are reported in degree C rather than 0.01C amounts eg 1.20C for March 2023. If reported in this format then the anomaly of 1.20 would be multiplied by 100 to convert to 0.01C amounts so 120 would be used in the formula.

Is this market about world temperatures or Northern Hemisphere temperatures?

@StevenK I would guess the North hemisphere in the description is just about summer for which hemisphere. While NOAA and others report North Hemisphere temps and rankings for whole calendar months, this question is specifically from 21 June so I would guess the claim will have to use something like

https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/

but there could be some daily source for northern hemisphere. (That I am not aware of any doesn't mean much.)

It would be good to get the source for resolution confirmed. @ArnaudAlpere Can you post something to indicate what source will be used.

🤨

Misleading title. Please revise.

@NicoDelon It would be good if misleading title markets like this could be tagged somehow.

@NicoDelon 34 is presumably just a typo, they meant 23.

@Odoacre I’m far from sure.

@NicoDelon The other thing I’ll say is I don’t know that I can trust a creator that answers no request for clarification.

@NicoDelon Yes it is in fact just a typo. I corrected it. And sorry not to be active everyday on this app 🙄

@ArnaudAlpere Don’t even have to be active every day. Once a week would have been enough.

@NicoDelon don't be too harsh. It's very hard to keep track of notifications for stuff like this. Especially if you log in once a week and everything is bunched into one notification page.

@Odoacre You’re right I shouldn’t be harsh. I’m just suggesting to Arnaud that, if he is to continue creating markets, he should check in at least once in a while to address questions.

@NicoDelon Which I did

@ArnaudAlpere Then we’re all good.

interesting choice, the year 2034. true predictions. 😎

Why does it say 2034 in the description?