Resolution criteria

The federal ban has been permanently averted as of January 2026. This market resolves YES if TikTok is banned in America at any point during 2026 (January 1 - December 31, 2026). A ban means TikTok is no longer accessible to U.S. users through official app stores or web services, or the app is forced to shut down operations in the United States.

The market resolves NO if TikTok remains operational and accessible to U.S. users throughout 2026. Resolution will be determined by checking official sources including the Federal Register, major news outlets, and app store availability (Apple App Store, Google Play Store).

Background

Congress passed a law that gave TikTok an ultimatum: divest from Chinese ownership or be banned. TikTok was under a de jure nationwide ban from January 19, 2025, until January 22, 2026, though the ban was not enforced. In January 2026, investors announced they had agreed to establish a new U.S. version of TikTok in a $14 billion deal that came after Congress passed a law requiring divestment from Chinese ownership. A joint venture made up mostly of U.S.-based investors officially took over the app's operations, with Oracle, Silver Lake, and MGX serving as managing investors.

Considerations

The arrangement has raised concerns about whether it reaches the threshold of separation from ByteDance that lawmakers intended, as the law says there cannot be any operational relationship between the new owners and ByteDance, including cooperation with respect to TikTok's algorithm and data sharing. ByteDance retains ownership of the recommendation algorithm, meaning the U.S. entity operates it under license but cannot unilaterally change how it works, and the underlying intellectual property remains in Beijing. Congressional scrutiny of the deal's compliance with the original law remains ongoing.

This description was generated by AI.