Will the Houthi Rebels successfully seize another cargo ship in an act of piracy before the end of 2024?
46
362
1k
2025
28%
chance

This market will resolve yes if the Houthi Rebels retain control over the cargo ship, tanker, or other large ship long enough to dock it in a place of their choosing. If they board the ship and then lose control before it docks that event will not count.

Get Ṁ600 play money
Sort by:

Related

bought Ṁ60 NO

They are in a much better position to sink ships than to seize them at the moment.

predicts YES

predicts YES

of course i will buy the dip after USA bombed yemen. you can see in videos like this that the houthi campaign of piracy in solidarity with palestine is popular https://twitter.com/Ayah2156/status/1745998311490715958

obviously houthis will continue their operations, and the US-NATO-backed Prosperity Guardian must ramp up their operations in the red sea, or it will be proven their coalition is ineffective

predicts NO

@JamieCrom you seem really overconfident on this to me - it's nothing new that what the Houthi are doing is popular. Moreover, on your previous comment you state, "The counter-pirate military forces of the world don't seem very interested in actually protecting Israeli ships", which is a bit of an odd statement - perhaps you can elaborate?

Personally for me, considering the amount of navy vessels which are actually in operation around Yemen's coast (more will be deployed, imo), it seems unlikely they will successfully hijack a vessel (note that the last time this was done successfully was via helicopter, which now doesn't appear to be possible considering the anti-air capabilities of navy vessels) (I'll add also that just shooting at the vessels is a lot more easier), and it seems even more unlikely that the hijackers would then be able to take the vessel to a friendly port without being intercepted by Op. Prosperity forces.

@vitamind there was a week where houthi pirates were successful and the counter-pirate were struggling to get ships and crews. but that is no longer the case.

bought Ṁ260 of YES

The Houthis are funded and in a great position to engage in piracy. The counter-pirate military forces of the world don't seem very interested in actually protecting Israeli ships.

predicts NO

@JamieCrom The Houthis have attacked ships with no plausible connection to Israel. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_Red_Sea_crisis