Add options!
I have randomly generated a valid 5-letter Wordle word. Can Manifold guess the word in 6 tries? This game is using the normal Wordle rules, not the Hard Mode rules. Since I know what the correct answer is, I will not trade on this market (but I might add options).
When this market closes, I will use the FairlyRandom bot to generate a random number between 1 and 100. If the number is below 20, a random valid option from this market will be selected as the second guess for this game of Wordle. Otherwise, the highest probability valid option on this market will be selected.
To prevent this market from being whalebait, I will close the market at a random time (probably) within an hour of the indicated closing time. Once the game of Wordle is over, the option that was selected will resolve to YES if Manifold wins and NO if Manifold loses. The options that were not selected will resolve to N/A.
1,000
3.00@FairlyRandom This means that Manifold chooses the option with the highest probability, which is PILOT! All of the other options will resolve N/A, and PILOT will resolve to YES or NO later depending on whether Manifold wins the Wordle game.
We know where the R goes and unlikely to guess word this time so better at this stage to try a letter other than R (testing a second R would be possible but broil doesn't do that).
o and i as 2 vowels I like.
Best consonants to try T D S L second R ,,, B is probably better than M P W Z that appear in some suggestions.
Anyway the above gives us doits or toils.
@ChristopherRandles I don't know, playing Wordle in hard mode (where you must continue to use any green squares you reveal) can lead to some really great stats.
@Arky the options being added are confusing - is there something I'm missing? is CRANE the starting word?
@shankypanky Yes, CRANE was the first word. If it is chosen again in this market it will essentially be a wasted guess since it won't give any new information. I wanted to see what the probability of winning the Wordle game would be if one guess is wasted. Sorry for the confusion!
@Arky no I'm not confused by that response I'm confused by the new ones and why some are trading so high lol Is it possible some traders here haven't played Wordle? Or maybe others have a strat I don't know about?
@shankypanky I bet people are going for the strategy of guessing a second word with completely different letters from the first one to maximize the amount of information that you gain
@shankypanky Oh I forgot about that setting, I should specify that this is normal mode, not hard mode!
@Arky yeah I'll see if I can back out then without too much mana cost
I forgot that's considered hard mode I'm just used to it being normal 😅