Add options!
I have randomly generated a valid 5-letter Wordle word. Can Manifold guess the word in 6 tries? Since I know what the correct answer is, I will not trade on this market (but I might add options).
When this market closes, I will use the FairlyRandom bot to generate a random number between 1 and 100. If the number is below 20, a random valid option will be selected as the first guess for this game of Wordle. Otherwise, the highest probability valid option on this market will be selected.
To prevent this market from being whalebait, I will close the market at a random time (probably) within an hour of the indicated closing time. Once the game of Wordle is over, the option that was selected will resolve to YES if Manifold wins and NO if Manifold loses. The options that were not selected will resolve to N/A.
1,000
3.00@FairlyRandom Ok, this means that Manifold chooses the option with the highest probability, which is CRANE! All of the other options will resolve NA, and CRANE will resolve to YES or NO later depending on whether Manifold wins the Wordle game.
If you want to predict the outcome of Manifold's Wordle game:
@Bayesian I wanted each option to just be the probability that the game will be won if it is selected which I think works better with unlinked options. I'll probably make a pure whalebait version after this one is done and just let people go nuts