Arete's calibration
Grade: B, Score: -2.37
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Arete bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
3%
10%
20%
30%
40%
- In the glowfic continuity "planecrash", will one of the conspirators reveal, attempt to reveal, or be removed from in order to prevent them revealing, the conspiracy, before the start of (actual) Day 47 as measured by the PL timestamps?NOṀ20
- Will the collective Twitter followers of all wellby and anti qualy accounts > Qualy followers?NOṀ10
- [planecrash][rot13] Jvyy Xrygunz qrfgebl Puryvnk orsber nfpraqvat gb tbqubbq?NOṀ10
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
95%
97%
- Will this market have M$15,000 invested by February 25th?YESṀ400
- Will any market with the word "rationalussy" in the title resolve YES in 2023?YESṀ100
- In " everything could stay the same or we could change it all", will at least one doctor or nurse know for sure that Tadesse is also an alien wizard by April 15?NOṀ20