Will NO foreign leader claim by 31 Dec 2028 that Putin used impersonators, decoys, body doubles to represent Russia?
4
1kṀ96
2028
71%
chance

Will NO foreign leader claim by 31 Dec 2028 that Vladimir Putin used impersonators, decoys, or body doubles of himself for foreign diplomacy?

Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if, by 31 December 2028 (23:59 UTC):

No sitting or former foreign head of state or head of government

Publicly claims that Vladimir Putin used impersonators, decoys, or body doubles of himself, and

That such impersonators/decoys/body doubles:

Conducted foreign diplomatic negotiations, or

Officially represented Russia at international summits or meetings with foreign leaders.

Resolves NO if

At least one foreign leader makes such a claim before the deadline.

Does NOT count

Statements referring only to security decoys without diplomatic representation;

Claims limited to domestic events or appearances;

Claims by journalists, intelligence officials, diplomats, MPs, or anonymous sources.

Speculative, sarcastic, or indirect remarks count only if the leader does not later state that the comment was a joke, sarcasm, or otherwise retract or immediately clarify the wording.

P.S.: Resolves Yes:

The claimant’s status as a foreign leader cannot be verified.

Notes

“Foreign leader” = non-Russian head of state or government.

A single qualifying claim resolves the market NO

Silence from all leaders through the deadline resolves YES

Market context
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