Will Gawr Gura return from her break before February 14, 2023? | Manifold Markets

closes Feb 14

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Will Gawr Gura return from her break before February 14, 2023?

92%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Context: Gura announced a break December 21, 2022 https://twitter.com/gawrgura/status/1605615746981122048

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bought Ṁ100 of YES

https://twitter.com/gawrgura/status/1618465741380153344

bought Ṁ120 of YES

@Arctanno cheers

Russell Rollins

https://twitter.com/gawrgura/status/1615911120153223168

Manifold DreamBot

Manifold in the wild: A Tweet by Arc

them: you should make prediction markets in an attempt to estimate the probability of important future events me: ah yes, I must use the wisdom of markets to determine when my oshi will return https://manifold.markets/Arctanno/will-gawr-gura-return-from-her-brea?r=QXJjdGFubm8

sold Ṁ4 NO from 91% to 92%

sold Ṁ91 YES from 92% to 91%

bought Ṁ5 YES at 92%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ39/Ṁ100 YES at 92% (cancelled)

bought Ṁ30 YES at 91%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ50/Ṁ100 YES at 91% (cancelled)

bought Ṁ24 NO from 94% to 90%

bought Ṁ10 YES at 94%

bought Ṁ10 YES at 94%

bought Ṁ10 YES at 94%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 93% to 94%

bought Ṁ10 YES at 93%

bought Ṁ10 YES at 93%

bought Ṁ10 YES at 93%

bought Ṁ10 YES at 93%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ89/Ṁ100 YES at 93% (cancelled)

bought Ṁ30 YES from 91% to 92%

sold Ṁ1 NO at 91%

bought Ṁ50 YES from 90% to 91%

sold Ṁ152 YES from 93% to 90%

bought Ṁ20 YES from 92% to 93%

sold Ṁ36 YES from 93% to 92%

bought Ṁ100 YES from 91% to 93%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ57/Ṁ100 YES at 91% (cancelled)

bought Ṁ120 YES from 85% to 90%

bought Ṁ50 YES from 82% to 85%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot

filled limit order Ṁ9/Ṁ11 NO at 82% (cancelled)

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ7/Ṁ100 NO at 85% (cancelled)

bought Ṁ200 YES from 72% to 87%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ4/Ṁ100 NO at 72% (cancelled)

bought Ṁ100 YES from 56% to 74%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 53% to 56%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ4/Ṁ100 NO at 53% (cancelled)

bought Ṁ20 YES from 47% to 55%

bought Ṁ10 NO from 52% to 47%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot

filled limit order Ṁ3/Ṁ5 YES at 52% (cancelled)

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ7/Ṁ100 YES at 50% (cancelled)

bought Ṁ25 NO from 60% to 46%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot

filled limit order Ṁ6/Ṁ8 YES at 60% (cancelled)

Russell Rollins

bought Ṁ45 NO from 89% to 56%

bought Ṁ50 YES from 85% to 89%

bought Ṁ50 YES from 77% to 85%

bought Ṁ10 NO from 86% to 77%

bought Ṁ75 YES from 50% to 86%