Will either Joe Biden or Donald Trump be elected President in 2024?
Nov 2
Resolves YES if they win the election, even if they do not end up being inaugurated (due to illness etc). Resolves NO if someone else wins the election.
Get Ṁ200 play money
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predicts YES
predicts YES

@nsokolsky My cat made this same question, but with a third candidate as well

@Tumbles Can't believe people think the probability of @Mira being elected is under 1%.

In the 2024 poll projections, Biden has a marginal lead over Trump, registering at 49% to Trump's 47% among the electorate. (Marist Poll, 2023) Both candidates grapple with favorability concerns, yet Biden enjoys the support of the ascendant Democratic Party. The Quinnipiac survey adds another dimension, revealing that 13% of voters expressing "somewhat" disapproval for Biden would still prefer him over Trump by an 11-point spread. (Quinnipiac University Poll, 2023) This is echoed by the Wall Street Journal, with a pronounced 66% of these voters favoring Biden in a direct matchup, whereas Trump secures a scant 18%. Furthermore, Trump's approval rating is a worrisome 41.5%, significantly lower than that of previous presidents at this point in their second terms. (Morrison, 2023) Trump's situation is made much more difficult by impending legal challenges, such as those pertaining to the Capitol incident on January 6th and the investigation into his financial activities. The odds appear to be stacked against him when you consider additional financial difficulties like growing interest rates and inflation. These figures and allusions suggest that Biden is in a stronger position going into the 2024 race.

predicts NO

Arb with

bought Ṁ100 of YES

@Predictor I don't see how to arb this

bought Ṁ20 of YES

Arb with

bought Ṁ250 of YES

@BoltonBailey I need to stop commenting about arbs before I fully take advantage of them.

predicts YES

@BoltonBailey This was pretty crazy though, I think it was at least around 40 mana lying on the ground.

predicts YES

@BoltonBailey for some reason, this has been consistently below the sum of the various Trump and Biden markets

predicts YES

@EliLifland I wouldn't trade that one. It's parimutuel and resolves the day after the election.

predicts YES

@BoltonBailey Why is parimutuel and resolving day after election bad?

predicts YES

@EliLifland With parimutuel, you don't get a fixed payout based on the number of shares you buy. Instead, you buy shares in a pool, and at the end, all the money is split among the winning pool. This means that if the election is decisive, people will buy up the winning pool, diluting the value of the shares.

predicts YES

@BoltonBailey Ah I found https://kevin.zielnicki.com/2022/02/17/manifold/, yeah I'll sell my positions in that market, thanks for the rec

bought Ṁ10 of NO

Biden and Trump
Both past their prime
2024 won't be their time

bought Ṁ50 of NO
sold Ṁ61 of NO
predicts NO

@JoshuaB Missed this, thanks

sold Ṁ46 of NO

@Matto442 On second thought should have just left my combined trade up (maybe do less on the just Trump one), selling was dumb

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