Is there a chance for a major correction in the stock market within the next three months?
12
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230
Apr 30
5%
chance

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Resolution please @AnthonyFlemings

bought Ṁ120 NO

@AnthonyFlemings this market doesn't have any resolution criteria - it would be good to make things concrete.

A "correction" is usually defined as a peak-to-trough decline of more than 10% but less than 20%.

Perhaps you might choose a threshold in that range ("major" suggests a larger correction than merely the minimum 10%, though I don't think traders would mind if you picked 10% either) and resolve this market YES if, say, the S&P 500 falls peak-to-trough by more than that amount.

The probability as worded is 100 percent.

@BTE Yep, there is a non-zero chance, so this should immediately resolve YES