Probability Calibration for Election Day 2024
2
130
180
Nov 5
1%
/00/
7%
/0[1-9A-F]/
38%
/[A-F]./
54%
Anything else

This market will resolve to the option that matches the final two digits of the NIST Randomness Beacon at https://csrc.nist.gov/Projects/interoperable-randomness-beacons/beacon-20 at Midnight GMT on November 6, 2024.

It will be resolved based on the final number generated at the following link in the field "outputValue": https://beacon.nist.gov/beacon/2.0/pulse/time/1730851200

If the NIST Randomness Beacon is not functioning properly at the designated moment, then the first generated number after that moment will be used. If there is no generated number within 24 hours of the designated moment, then the market will resolve N/A.

If the NIST Randomness Beacon is shown not to generate sufficiently random output, I reserve the right to choose an alternative random, public source of hexadecimal numbers.

The options, specified as regular expressions:

  1. /00/: The outputValue ends in exactly the digits '00'.

  2. /0[1-9A-F]/: The outputValue ends in 0X, where X is any number 1-9 or A-F.

  3. /[A-F]./: The last two digits of the outputValue start with a letter.

  4. All other values not covered by options 1-3

I may trade on this market.

Get Ṁ600 play money
Sort by:
boughtṀ101/00/ NO

@jack Some quick maths :( I was to slow