Ankur Agrawal's calibration
Grade: B, Score: -1.59
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Ankur Agrawal bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
50%
60%
70%
- Will Michelle Yeoh win the Best Actress Oscar for her role as Evelyn Quan Wang in 'Everything Everywhere All at Once' at the 95th Academy Awards?YESṀ100
- Will Michelle Yeoh win the Best Actress Oscar for her role as Evelyn Quan Wang in 'Everything Everywhere All at Once' at the 95th Academy Awards?YESṀ100
- Will Silicon Valley Bank uninsured depositors recover 100% of their deposits within 1 year?YESṀ100