What will be the outcome of Putin's possible attendance at the BRICS summit?
9
430Ṁ2194
resolved Aug 23
100%99.1%
BRICS summit is held in SA; Putin doesn't attend
0.2%
BRICS summit is postponed past the end of 2023, cancelled, or held in a different location
0.2%
BRICS summit is held in SA; Putin attends; ICC Warrant not served
0.2%
BRICS summit is held in SA; Putin attends; ICC Warrant served; Putin not meaningfully detained and BRICS summit not disrupted
0.1%
BRICS summit is held in SA; Putin attends; ICC Warrant served; Putin not meaningfully detained but Russia's participation in BRICS summit disrupted
0.1%
BRICS summit is held in SA; Putin attends; ICC Warrant served; Putin formally detained for at least one hour

Context:

South Africa has claimed it cannot arrest Vladimir Putin at a planned Brics summit in Johannesburg next month because Russia has threatened to “declare war” if the International Criminal Court warrant against its leader is enforced.


President Cyril Ramaphosa said in court papers publicly released on Tuesday that “Russia has made it clear that arresting its sitting president would be a declaration of war” as he revealed that Pretoria has notified the ICC that it might not be able to detain Putin.


Putin's acceptance of a South African invitation to appear alongside Chinese, Indian, Brazilian and other leaders of the so-called Brics nations at the summit has yet to be confirmed. Ramaphosa’s government is increasingly anxious to dissuade him from coming given a looming clash with Pretoria’s legal obligations.

“South Africa has obvious problems with executing a request to arrest and surrender President Putin . . . it would be inconsistent with our constitution to risk engaging in war with Russia,” Ramaphosa said.

As a member of the ICC, South Africa would risk breaking its own and international law if it sought to avoid arresting Putin, after the court indicted him on war crimes charges over child abductions in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The Rome Statute treaty underpinning the ICC does allow states to consult the court if they encounter problems executing its warrants, the avenue South Africa is now using. Ramaphosa declined to provide details of these consultations in the court papers.

Related market: https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-vladimir-putin-attend-brics-su

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