Will I make MIT RA as a competition math star, given that I've been deferred EA?
resolved Mar 14

Note: resolves the same as https://manifold.markets/AndrewLin81ea/i-was-deferred-from-mit-ea-will-i-m.

Intended Major


Standardized Testing

My SAT score is 1590. My PSAT score is 1520 but it probably doesn't matter.


I have 4.00 UW and 4.53 W GPA.

For unweighted GPA, I'm using the system where A = 4, B = 3, C = 2, D = 1, + and - add and subtract 1/3 (except A+ does nothing). For the weighted GPA, I am adding 0.5 for honors classes and 1 for AP classes.

APs, Honors, and College Level Classes

For all my courses, I have taken the highest level available at my school. This has resulted in every course being honors or higher except for PE and two other courses (over all years).

APs: I've taken AP Calculus BC, AP Physics C (both), AP Chemistry, AP Statistics, AP World History, and AP CSP and gotten 5s on all of them. I plan to take the AP Biology, US History, and English Language exams this year.

I've taken multivar/linalg. At my local college, I took Differential Equations and Real Analysis. At Princeton University (via their High School Program), I have taken Multivariable Analysis and Linear Algebra I and plan to take II in the spring. (Princeton's level of rigor is much higher than anything I've done before.)


I am a junior applying one year early.

Extracurricular Information and Awards

Describe your extracurricular activities here.

List any awards you have received.

(These go together in my application.)

  • Physics competitions: This is minor; I qualified for USAPhO and got an Honorable Mention (top 200) but I didn't get much farther.

  • MIT PRIMES (math research program): I did a group project with two other students.

  • Math competitions:

    • My highest AMC score is 144; my highest AIME score is 13.

    • I've gotten one silver medal and one gold medal on USAMO.

    • I've qualified for MOP twice: blue MOP in 2022 and black MOP in 2023.

    • I've qualified for TST group twice.

    • I occasionally do well in other computational math contests.

I would say that the last two are stellar: it is really difficult to get into PRIMES or MOP.

Any Other Information

Include any other relevant information here.

I've already been deferred from MIT early action.

Essays (excluding information about people and places) are public at https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/pqxax90w743j1bfbn89qz/_-MIT-Short-Essays-Public-Edition.paper?dl=0&rlkey=xnil69d2dao2phy22d0gnwssp so that you can be the judge.

Resolution criteria: This market resolves YES if I get admitted to MIT in Regular Action and it resolves NO if I get rejected from MIT in Regular Action. If I get waitlisted, the market will remain open until one of these events occurs. It will resolve N/A if some circumstance prevents either of the two aforementioned events from occurring (e.g. MIT ceases to be a university), although I don't expect this to occur.

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Thats it, i'm not applying to college.

The End.

@Andrewaae1 Sorry to hear that! I think you have more impressive accomplishments than getting into MIT anyway. Their loss. You'll do great anywhere ;)

oops I have negative balance now

If you can get rejected after making MOP, I don't know what kind of stuff you need to get in anymore

@cc6 To be fair, most (90%-eps) of MOPpers were accepted, but I agree this is wild.

@JuniKim My friends say that MOP increases your chance of getting into MIT. I think it's more likely that people who get selected for MOP are generally likely to be very qualified.

@cc6 I think this is actually more causation than correlation; qualifying for MOP does not test you on application-writing skills unlike MCSP or SSP. Obviously, you cannot expect to get in with only MOP and a weak application everywhere else, but I think the 90% acceptance rate suggests systematic admittance.

Also anecdotally, the only people who seem to get into MIT from competitive schools tend to consist of athletes, oly campers, and research mains.

@JuniKim Wait my bad I mistyped, meant to say PRIMES, not MOP.

@cc6 i would agree with juni here even if you replace the word MOP with PRIMES.

@astyerche PRIMES does test on application writing skills though

@cc6 i think the PRIMES application weighs many of the other factors much more than the essay itself

@cc6 I agree: the problem set is probably the most important component for PRIMES. The expected background for doing research is large.

Resolving based on hearing from the market creator that they were rejected - apparently they couldn’t log in or something


@nyc no u

bought Ṁ30 MIT YES

I put this at ~65%:

  • People tend to overestimate the selectiveness of MIT.

  • I think you have a good chance on basis of your impressive math achievements - most of these more impressive than getting into MIT.

  • However, there are always random odds, and your essays are not the best.

@chatterchatty Thank you for your feedback
I understand that admissions can be unpredictable, and I will work on improving my essays to strengthen my application further am already preparing. When I was in school, writing essays was not my strong suit, so I used the service https://edubirdie.com/do-my-math-homework as a sample, and that’s how I improved my skills. Now I can write texts calmly, they are not perfect yet, but I am working on it. I think it will get better each time. As for this resource, it helps all students.

It is fascinating that probability estimates of people on this market range from 0% to 100%.

how is it even possible you get deferred

@8 he's heard this line a hundred times; doesn't matter bc THE DAY OF PI WILL COMETH

@astyerche free money, probably


i am number 1 andrew lin supporter