As of making this market, el Presidente is reportedly in custody of the police. He has already been impeached by the Congress he attempted to dissolve, but will he face a prison sentence?
This market will resolve YES if Castillo is sentenced to any amount of jail time connected with charges stemming from his attempt to dissolve the congress and/or discard the current constitution and institute a new one (also any of his related actions, like attempting to institute a curfew or disarm Peruvian citizens). This is still YES even if it amounts to time served. If he is removed from office, fined, or otherwise punished while remaining free to walk the streets, this resolves NO.
If Castillo is still a free man by the close date (April 2024) this resolves no by default. I might bet on this if it seems worthwhile.
Related questions
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ115 | |
| 2 | Ṁ21 | |
| 3 | Ṁ19 | |
| 4 | Ṁ14 | |
| 5 | Ṁ5 |
Okay, so here's an interesting wrinkle: https://www.npr.org/2022/12/16/1143328638/peru-judge-18-months-detention-pedro-castillo
He's been sentenced to remain in custody . . . but so far as I can tell, he hasn't actually been convicted of any charges? Evidently Peruvian judges can order someone to be imprisoned for a while because having them loose would politically inconvenient?
So, now I've discovered my resolution criteria were not precise enough - my intent was to capture whether or not he'd be punished for his (alleged) misdeeds by the justice system, not whether he'd be tucked into a dark hole by his political opponents. I'll admit I hadn't realized Peru was in such bad shape, in terms of liberal democratic norms, y'know?
So, what do you guys think? Should this count? There's still time enough for the current troubles to diminish and for him to face a normal trial (currently the charges are described by a sitting judge there as "rebellion" and potentially a ten-year sentence) but I'm not sure that'll happen by the current resolution date. Should I push it back, or call it on the basis of the currently ordered detention?
@AndrewHartman it looks like it would be in between your YES (sentenced) and your NO (walks free). If it stays like that you could resolve N/A, and could do another market as to whether or not he will be released by April
@egroj I dunno, it feels bad to N/A it. I might leave it till the resolution date and N/A then, if I have to. But I can hopefully bank on them actually sentencing him at some point.
In retrospect, maybe I should've planned for this eventuality, but I honestly thought the language was tight enough to exclude any reasonable ambiguous situations.
I suppose there's an argument that he's been sentenced to time "connected" with the charges, albeit not precisely as I'd intended. That feels a bit technical, though?
Castillo's lawyers have abandoned his defense: https://www.biobiochile.cl/noticias/internacional/america-latina/2022/12/19/crisis-en-peru-abogados-de-pedro-castillo-abandonan-su-defensa.shtml
@milanw Sounds like the YES bettors are probably going to be collecting their winnings sometime sooner than I expected, then. Although it'd help if you had an english version of the article around?
