Will I make a profit of >Ṁ5000 from any single market in 2023?
40
290
710
resolved Dec 20
Resolved
YES

Currently my greatest profit is Ṁ919.

Get Ṁ1,000 play money

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#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ1,696
2Ṁ222
3Ṁ92
4Ṁ86
5Ṁ54
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predicted NO

Damn I should have though about it when I saw you alongside me in the biggest NO holders for that market. But it's fine, I can just pretend I was hedging my poisition, and I was so smart that I hedged my position even before I acquired it! /s

predicted YES

@AndrewG nicely done

bought Ṁ5,000 of YES

@AndrewG I bought your limit order on the GPT-4.5 market, so unless you plan on trading more on it and possibly reducing your profit, this can resolve YES :)

Edit: Oh, it looks like you still have some shares there, this is not a done deal yet. Whoops, I thought that limit order was you selling your whole stake.

predicted NO

@chrisjbillington Yeah, I think my realized profit is M$3529. I'd meant to sell the whole stake, but I did my math wrong :P

predicted YES

@AndrewG I think I must have done the some math wrong before buying it!

predicted NO

This could be it

bought Ṁ50 of YES

@AndrewG Lol, arbing them (that market and this one). Not too closely lest you sell, here's hoping you don't!

Edit: hang on I think I've got it backwards, I should have bet GPT-4.5 up, not down. Oh well, now I'm invested in you winning that one, so be it (I lean the same way, on priors, and don't think the YESs have as much to go on as they think).

sold Ṁ47 of YES

Well, the WvM market resolved NO but apparently Andrew sold his shares (😢)

predicted YES

@AndrewG You are invested in /BruceGrugett/will-donald-trump-be-the-republican, and if the probability of YES on that market increases substantially, you could show a Ṁ5000 profit on it without it even resolving. Would that count, even though it doesn't resolve this year?

predicted NO

@BoltonBailey I'll resolve yes if at any point I have M$5000 in actualized profit (i.e. by selling enough yes shares); I won't count displayed expected profit on its own

predicted YES

@AndrewG That makes sense, thanks for the clarification!

Andrew currently holds Ṁ8,895 on NO on /IsaacKing/will-the-whales-win-this-market , and he has made 1174 in profit on that market so far. If he doesn't sell and the market resolves NO, he will profit over 5000 on that market.

does this market count for its own resolution, thus limiting your potential winnings on NO? or would it resolve in early jan 2024 and thus not count?

predicted NO

@Adam this is a good question. Theoretically, I could make Ṁ5000 in profit on a market that resolves in 2030 by selling at the right time; therefore, I think any market on which I make Ṁ5000 in profit (not just in expectation) would count, including this one.