Will the responder accept the offer in this Ultimatum Game?
57
87
1.1K
resolved Jan 27
Resolved
YES

I will run an ultimatum game (1000 mana) among two randomly selected manifolders who participated in this market.

Market resolves to Yes if the responder accepts the proposal.

Market resolves to No if the responder rejects the proposal.

Description of the ultimatum game:
One player, the proposer, is endowed with 1000mana. The proposer is tasked with splitting it with another player, the responder. Once the proposer communicates his decision, the responder may accept it or reject it. If the responder accepts, the money is split per the proposal; if the responder rejects, both players receive nothing.

More details about the ultimatum game on Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ultimatum_game

How the proposer and responder is selected:
At market closes, I will use #FairlyRandom to draw a random number to select the proposer, and ask the proposer to propose how to split the mana (in the comments section). Then I will randomly draw a responder, and ask the responder to decide whether to accept the proposal (in the comments section). *I will restrict the proposer and responder sample to those will less than 200 shares in the market, so that the ultimatum game incentives are not distorted by too much.


If the randomly drawn proposer or responder did not make their choice in the comments section within 24 hours, I will randomly select another manifolder to replace them.

The prize mana of the ultimatum game will be sent to the proposer and responder through manalink.

Get Ṁ200 play money

🏅 Top traders

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predicted YES

Wholesome ending

A summary: @Botlab proposed a 500/500 split, and the responder @dominic chose to accept the proposal

@dominic you has been chosen as the responder. Please let us know if you would accept the 500mana/500mana split with @Michael's Bot Laboratory in the comments within the next 24 hours.

predicted YES

@AmmonLam Nice, I will take it!

predicted YES

@dominic For what it's worth, I probably would have taken most amounts of mana >100 offered to me. I don't have a lot of mana, and this provides a nice boost. Lots of discussion about precommitment and stuff below, but to me, the decision is fairly clear, especially because it's very unlikely that this is going to be a repeated game.

@dominic Please send me a dm on discord and I will send you the Manalink

@AmmonLam your random number is: 11

Salt: IGgI5eWIYt8RRHY8hPcm, round: 2644663 (signature b1a944f8be3295dbdbd320e012575860688e8f6ba20871eecdcbc64b538fe079267d008ce055d13b3353a582bfa1554d0dcb3474977d7372b6f942b460b1745412d32bf5c4b5eb9eda8c2d5b30c816511f7d03ea55884acf8c9744d19ce7a75a)

@AmmonLam you asked for a random integer between 1 and 55, inclusive. Coming up shortly!

Source: GitHub, previous round: 2644661 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 2644663, salt: IGgI5eWIYt8RRHY8hPcm.

@FairlyRandom 55
(drawing the responder again since @kazoo was banned)

@AmmonLam your random number is: 44

Salt: VGvN2EEb7ssCIZL1IcvG, round: 2644567 (signature a6f149b0c3cc9e1b4bf7da4d9316495d36b0af2ab9d1e766f811801d0f0ee781732e3c855b561f014eff2af3e545011709d107f63b3c52055dc15bc569a921b7d38f224e19d1407c9d2a24d05e82687d368cc48769126afa0ef269eb9b9870bf)

predicted NO

@AmmonLam They were banned (you can see it on their profile), so you'll have to reroll.

@jack Oh thanks for the reminder. Yes I will have to reroll

@AmmonLam you asked for a random integer between 1 and 55, inclusive. Coming up shortly!

Source: GitHub, previous round: 2644565 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 2644567, salt: VGvN2EEb7ssCIZL1IcvG.

@FairlyRandom 55
(drawing the responder)

@Michael's Bot Laboratory has proposed a 50/50 split (i.e. 500 mana for himself, 500 mana for the responder) I will now draw the responder

@AmmonLam your random number is: 8

Salt: kPYfV3ubbJ35WrLVg3a0, round: 2643921 (signature 8994672ca54c51549b504b77fecf102314a6a5fa66a331bb5eaf5b056b13e02f7923a3f7feab83cf422a3f9d84fdf85e0ad9fdbc56fa0c7430f2a53f615212805bb19f2018e252c91dc6ff16fdb71d50831cfd112aa6a1210860a5901d2689b9)

@Michael's Bot Laboratory has been chosen as the proposer. Please propose how you would split the mana within the next 24 hours.

(I am aware that this is Michael's bot. As long as the bot account will comment within the next 24 hours I will treat it as a regular trader)


predicted YES

50/50 split

@AmmonLam you asked for a random integer between 1 and 55, inclusive. Coming up shortly!

Source: GitHub, previous round: 2643919 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 2643921, salt: kPYfV3ubbJ35WrLVg3a0.

Now that market is closed and Users tab is settled, I'll use FairlyRandom to randomly select the proposer. (starting from top left, excluding the users with over 200 shares)

@AmmonLam actually if users with over 200 shares is chosen I will just redrawn

predicted NO

I’ve read planecrash so if I won I’d offer Ṁ500 and probabilistically reject unfair splits such that the EV of offering them is less than Ṁ500.

predicted NO

@Tetraspace (Disclaimer: This is a prediction of my future behaviour based on what I know about myself and what I think the incentives for myself will be, not a commitment.)