Will Nikki Haley get more vote than Ron Desantis in the 2024 New Mexico Republican presidential primary?
20
9.6k
Dec 31
96%
chance

Resolves N/A if the 2024 New Mexico Republican presidential primary was cancaled

Get Ṁ600 play money
Sort by:
bought Ṁ50 NO

Resolves NO.

New Mexico primaries don't allow people to vote for withdrawn candidates (only for currently certified candidates or "uncommitted"; see the previous primary results: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_New_Mexico_Republican_presidential_primary) Thus, Haley cannot recieve any votes now, and definitely cannot recieve more than DeSantis.

bought Ṁ35 YES from 25% to 36%
bought Ṁ35 YES

@MugaSofer I don't see anything in the wikipedia page that says that

bought Ṁ250 NO

@mb You're right, that's not a great source, sorry about that. It only shows how they allowed people to vote, Trump or Uncommitted.

It is true, though. Here's a news article where they talk a little about how it works:

> For now [in December], the certified Republican candidates include former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy.

>“If nobody drops out, fine, we’ll keep it the way it is,” state Republican Party Chairman Steve Pearce said.

https://apnews.com/article/new-mexico-prepares-presidential-primary-93dd0c2d3df57f349123fc53cc5ede93

bought Ṁ10 YES

@MugaSofer Before the part you quoted it says this: Trump is among five contenders for the GOP nomination who a presidential primary nominating committee certified for New Mexico’s primary ballot. The Republican Party reserved the option to withdraw candidates from the primary until mid-February if any drop out of national contention.

Nikki Haley dropped out AFTER mid-February so I don't think they have the right to withdraw her anymore.

sold Ṁ113 NO

@mb Damn, you're right. It seems like the deadline for them to make changes was Feb 15 (https://www.thegreenpapers.com/P24/NM-R#0319), and I can't find anything online saying they did so, so maybe they decided to just stick with the original lineup this time.