How many Inkhaven residents will reach the end?
54
250Ṁ10k
resolved Dec 1
Resolved
40 - 45
100%97%
40 - 45
0.1%
0 - 4
0.0%
5 - 9
0.2%
10 - 14
0.2%
15 - 19
0.2%
20 - 24
0.2%
25 - 29
0.1%
30 - 34
1.6%
35 - 39

The Inkhaven Residency at Lighthaven requires all participants to publish at least one 500-word blog post every day for the month of November.

There are currently ~45 residents who have registered for the event. How many will still be standing by EOD November 30th?

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ375
2Ṁ308
3Ṁ235
4Ṁ188
5Ṁ130
Sort by:

The Lightcone staff just confirmed to me that ALL 41 residents finished. Mahmoud tried to fail out on purpose as a joke, but he posted another post that was >500 words later in the evening, before midnight on 11/30.

Does this count?

https://mynamelowercase.com/blog/how-i-failed-inkhaven/

@TonyGao the organizers just confirmed to me that he later posted a >500 word post later in the evening, before midnight, so he did not actually fail out.

Okay I mean 97% is wayyy to high if anyone dumps liquidity we’ll insider trade or something

@ms update all the way bro

maybe a meteor will hit california

odds of that are, what? 0.1%?

@comicstosteal I think then it should resolve as ambiguous.

sold Ṁ1 YES

I would not have predicted it, but everyone survived the fist half of it!

Does anyone know what they're doing about Thanksgiving? That's the main thing I could see tripping people up at the end.

bought Ṁ25 NO

So 50% odds on 40/41 publishing a >= 500 word blog post every day? I don't know much about this event but that seems too high.

See data at https://www.inkhaven.blog/fall-25 (currently 41/41 remain)

Inkhaven Residency
The Inkhaven Residency
sold Ṁ0 YES

FYI there are 41 residents confirmed

pls don't assasinate me

@ms I have the makings of a post!

@ArtimisFowl character assassination wouldn’t be insider trade!

@ms Good thing you didn't come to Bodega Bay. Someone got stuck in actual, literal quicksand at the beach today! (He's fine.)

@AmandafromBethlehem there should be a movie about that insider-trading attempt

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy