https://dnyuz.com/2023/11/18/the-axe-is-sharp/

@mckiev why create such a large limit order in this market when you can easily buy shares in the other larger market at a much better price?

Polymarket, a real-money market with $2 million total bet, gives biden 73% odds.

electionbettingodds.com, synthesizing $6 million in real-money bets from Betfair, Predictit, and Smarkets, gives biden 70% odds.

So I would appreciate if somebody could explain to me: what is the secret rationalist alpha that justifies our being 10%+ more optimistic about our pal Joe?

@JacksonWagner

1) A lot of the discrepancy could be due to ROI considerations. Price != prediction. On the real-money prediction markets you should expect a >5% annual discount rate. Manifold has loans i.e. leverage which reduces the discount rate somewhat (under the right circumstances). Note however that this doesn't explain why the price would be biased lower or higher on a well-traded market like this.

2) If you look at the shareholders on https://manifold.markets/NathanpmYoung/will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n, the rationalist alpha is mainly me betting a lot :)

Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee?

83% chance. Close date updated to 2024-08-02 12:59 am

@JacksonWagner to repeat what I shared on the other identical market, if you think the real-money markets are so wise, correct this market to those levels!

I think the real money markets are not that accurate. Everyone here saying the real money markets are a source of great wisdom also claims to have profited from them (they are not that accurate then)

Tough month for Biden: https://www.foxnews.com/politics/hunter-biden-received-250k-wire-from-beijing-with-beneficiary-address-listed-as-joe-biden-delaware-home

Hunter Biden received $250K wires originating in Beijing with beneficiary address listed as Joe Biden's home

Hunter Biden received wires originating in Beijing for more than $250,000 from Chinese business partners — wires that listed the Delaware home of Joe Biden as the beneficiary address for the funds, Fox News Digital has learned.

very nice way of CNN (clinton news network) to question the biden "campaign":

https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/13/politics/biden-reelection-campaign/index.html

Slow pace of Biden’s reelection campaign feeds Democrats’ 2024 anxiety | CNN Politics

The conversations keep happening – quiet whispers on the sidelines of events, texts, emails, furtive phone calls – as top Democrats and donors reach out to those seen as possible replacement presidential candidates.

A similar market with higher volumes: