Resolve YES if Joe Biden is officially nominated as the Democratic Party's presidential candidate for the 2024 United States presidential election. This includes both winning the Democratic primaries and being formally chosen as the nominee at the Democratic National Convention.
Resolve NO if Joe Biden does not become the Democratic Party's presidential candidate for the 2024 United States presidential election. This includes scenarios such as Biden deciding not to run for re-election, losing the Democratic primaries to another candidate, or being nominated but then withdrawing from the race.
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Nancy Pelosi has withdrawn her support - at least, that's how this is being widely interpreted: https://www.semafor.com/article/07/10/2024/she-knows-hes-watching-nancy-pelosi-fuels-doubt-around-president-bidens-nomination
Biden writes a letter declaring his intention to run:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/07/08/us/president-biden-letter-to-congressional-democrats-78.html
Democrats begin attacking Biden’s performance and campaign
Rep. Lloyd Doggett (D-Texas) said the president needs to step aside and usher in a “new generation of leaders.”
Top Democrats have begun forcefully and aggressively criticizing President Joe Biden’s debate performance and pushing back against what they call an unconvincing response from his campaign to worries that he’s no longer up for the job — delivering a dire warning to the party.
Rep. Lloyd Doggett (D-Texas), called on Biden to drop out of the race. Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-S.C.), a key ally of the president, told MSNBC’s Andrea Mitchell that he will back Vice President Kamala Harris if Biden steps aside. Former Speaker Nancy Pelosi said it’s completely legitimate to question whether Biden’s debate performance was “an episode or is this a condition?”
Democratic governors are also planning to meet with Biden, possibly as soon as Wednesday, after more than two dozen gathered on a call this week to vent about the president.
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/07/02/democrats-biden-debate-fallout-00166208
Politico: First Democrat in Congress calls on Biden to withdraw from reelection
Rep. Lloyd Doggett (D-Texas) said the president needs to step aside and usher in a “new generation of leaders.”
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/07/02/democrats-biden-debate-fallout-00166208
Family wants him to stay in. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/30/us/politics/biden-debate-anxious-democrats.html
@mckiev why create such a large limit order in this market when you can easily buy shares in the other larger market at a much better price?
Polymarket, a real-money market with $2 million total bet, gives biden 73% odds.
electionbettingodds.com, synthesizing $6 million in real-money bets from Betfair, Predictit, and Smarkets, gives biden 70% odds.
So I would appreciate if somebody could explain to me: what is the secret rationalist alpha that justifies our being 10%+ more optimistic about our pal Joe?
1) A lot of the discrepancy could be due to ROI considerations. Price != prediction. On the real-money prediction markets you should expect a >5% annual discount rate. Manifold has loans i.e. leverage which reduces the discount rate somewhat (under the right circumstances). Note however that this doesn't explain why the price would be biased lower or higher on a well-traded market like this.
2) If you look at the shareholders on https://manifold.markets/NathanpmYoung/will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n, the rationalist alpha is mainly me betting a lot :)
@JacksonWagner to repeat what I shared on the other identical market, if you think the real-money markets are so wise, correct this market to those levels!
I think the real money markets are not that accurate. Everyone here saying the real money markets are a source of great wisdom also claims to have profited from them (they are not that accurate then)
very nice way of CNN (clinton news network) to question the biden "campaign":
https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/13/politics/biden-reelection-campaign/index.html
