Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee?
124
855
1.5k
Aug 1
97%
chance

Resolve YES if Joe Biden is officially nominated as the Democratic Party's presidential candidate for the 2024 United States presidential election. This includes both winning the Democratic primaries and being formally chosen as the nominee at the Democratic National Convention.

Resolve NO if Joe Biden does not become the Democratic Party's presidential candidate for the 2024 United States presidential election. This includes scenarios such as Biden deciding not to run for re-election, losing the Democratic primaries to another candidate, or being nominated but then withdrawing from the race.

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bought Ṁ0 of YES

@mckiev why create such a large limit order in this market when you can easily buy shares in the other larger market at a much better price?

bought Ṁ520 of NO

Polymarket, a real-money market with $2 million total bet, gives biden 73% odds.

electionbettingodds.com, synthesizing $6 million in real-money bets from Betfair, Predictit, and Smarkets, gives biden 70% odds.

So I would appreciate if somebody could explain to me: what is the secret rationalist alpha that justifies our being 10%+ more optimistic about our pal Joe?

predicts YES

@JacksonWagner

1) A lot of the discrepancy could be due to ROI considerations. Price != prediction. On the real-money prediction markets you should expect a >5% annual discount rate. Manifold has loans i.e. leverage which reduces the discount rate somewhat (under the right circumstances). Note however that this doesn't explain why the price would be biased lower or higher on a well-traded market like this.

2) If you look at the shareholders on https://manifold.markets/NathanpmYoung/will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n, the rationalist alpha is mainly me betting a lot :)

predicts YES

@JacksonWagner to repeat what I shared on the other identical market, if you think the real-money markets are so wise, correct this market to those levels!

I think the real money markets are not that accurate. Everyone here saying the real money markets are a source of great wisdom also claims to have profited from them (they are not that accurate then)

A similar market with higher volumes: