Allan Lacy's calibration
Grade: A-, Score: -0.9
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Allan Lacy bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
1%
3%
5%
10%
20%
30%
- Will any state use the 14th Amendment to successfully disqualify a US presidential candidate [Trump] in 2024?NOṀ300
- Will any state use the 14th Amendment to successfully disqualify a US presidential candidate [Trump] in 2024?NOṀ120
- Will any state use the 14th Amendment to successfully disqualify a US presidential candidate [Trump] in 2024?NOṀ100
40%
- Will any state use the 14th Amendment to successfully disqualify a US presidential candidate [Trump] in 2024?NOṀ180
- Will any state use the 14th Amendment to successfully disqualify a US presidential candidate [Trump] in 2024?NOṀ106
- Will any state use the 14th Amendment to successfully disqualify a US presidential candidate [Trump] in 2024?NOṀ100
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
- Will Trump be charged by the DA in Fulton County Georgia for his attempts to overturn election in Georgia?YESṀ909
- Will Trump be charged by the DA in Fulton County Georgia for his attempts to overturn election in Georgia?YESṀ800
- Will the Australia make the semi finals of the 2023 Cricket World Cup?YESṀ600
95%
97%