AliciaGrugett avatar
resolved Nov 30
Will Sam Bankman-Fried still be speaking at the New York Times / Accenture sponsored DealBook Summit on November 30th at Lincoln Center?
Resolved
YES


Close date updated to 2022-11-30 6:00 pm

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Gigacasting avatar

Supposedly they won’t arrest him until enough time has passed that clawbacks of all his donations won’t occur (the lookback is much longer for fraud, which presumably an indictment might open as a possibility)

Source:

Gigacasting avatar

The “sbf admits he faked his ethics to fool VCs” and supposedly has lost multiple attorneys because he keeps talking timeline never ceases to amuse:

kolotom99 avatar

I opened a market on whether he will speak live, online or not at all:

kolotom99 avatar

@ag Does online speaking count for YES?

NickAllen avatar
Nick Allen
is predicting YES at 56%
AliciaGrugett avatar
AG
is predicting YES at 84%
AlexRockwell avatar
Alex Rockwell
bought Ṁ45 of NO

I wonder if he shows up and gets arrested.

BoltonBailey avatar

@AlexRockwell I heard on some podcast that the Bahamas has an extradition treaty with the US, so if SBF is still in the Bahamas now, presumably it's not too much of a risk for him to come to the US.

amoebus avatar

@BoltonBailey If the US want to arrest him it would be significantly easier and quicker to do that when he is in the US, rather than creating an international arrest warrant, have the Bahamas arrest him and go through a whole extradition process. Also, it's not clear if the Bahamas would extradite him, given that he might have broken the law there as well so they'd want to try him there or there might be other reasons that they won't want to extradite him. (It's a political decision and not automatic.)

brp avatar

@amoebus

Not only that, but Lincoln center is in the state of New York. Visiting there in person would make it possible for him to be very easily charged by state authorities. (I assume the NY State AG's office is more specialized in prosecuting financial crimes than AsG of other states.)

SG avatar
S G
sold Ṁ125 of NO

It’s happening!

MartinRandall avatar
Martin Randall
sold Ṁ183 of NO

How does this resolve if he is speaking via video link?

AliciaGrugett avatar
AG
is predicting YES at 10%

@MartinRandall It would still resolve as Yes. The question speaks to whether he would be uninvited, shunned and/or possibly imprisoned due to being embroiled in his FTX collapse. That was the point of the question. If he's still allowed to speak, regardless of how he appears, the question will be resolved as YES.

MartinRandall avatar
Martin Randall
is predicting NO at 10%

@AliciaGrugett Makes sense. I was thinking he might appear via video link (or video recording) due to being imprisoned, under house arrest, or on the run.

NickAllen avatar
Nick Allen
bought Ṁ10 of YES

He's still showing on the speaker list, and given that puff piece the NYT wrote about him post-FTX collapse I'm guessing his PR firm paid them lots of money.

VivaLaPanda avatar
VivaLaPanda
is predicting NO at 5%

Seems like basically free money to trade this to 0