Now that I've reached my goal, will I maintain my fitness?
32
293
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resolved Oct 2
Resolved
YES

All year, I've trained for one mountain: Grand Teton. Now that I've reached my goal of climbing the Grand, will I maintain my fitness any longer?

I can be very driven, obsessive even, in pursuing goals. But in the absence of a goal to dedicate myself to, is there any reason to suffer, I mean, exercise? Other than this anomaly of a year, I never exercise. I have no intention of ever doing hill sprints again unless I'm being chased by a moose.

It's ambiguous how I'd determine whether I'm maintaining equal or greater fitness. Appearance and weight are irrelevant; what matters to me is ability. When I was training I tracked metrics I needed to hit, like time per thousand feet of elevation gain. Maybe my friends can ask to hike at any time and put me on the spot, so I don't have time to prepare last-minute? And if at any time I fall below my current fitness level, I'll immediately resolve to no. I'm open to suggestions for resolution criteria!

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predicted YES

It's the end of the season (at least until I learn to use an ice axe)! I had such a happy time in the mountains and managed to squeeze in one last hike to the snowy summit of Table Mountain. Thanks for betting, everyone!

predicted YES

Update: I'm reaching some of my fastest uphill times now, always on early start days, surprisingly. There's something about hiking in the dark that makes the miles fly by!

predicted YES

Quick update: I revisited my standard training hike from last season. I'm hitting similar times on uphills and getting faster on downhills now.

predicted NO

@Alice nooo

bought Ṁ5 of NO

Still think you could take on the big teat?

predicted YES

@ian I've been training for Middle Teton this season, which scares me more!

predicted YES
predicted NO

@Alice beautiful! Congrats!

I have been using the weight loss app for a long time. Therefore, if you are interested, I would advise you to try it https://lasta.app/features/cbt-psychology-for-weight-loss/ It really works and brings good results. I will be glad if it helps you.

predicted NO

How much have you exerciced since starting the poll?

predicted YES

@EliasSchmied It's been on and off but particularly rough this past month. Since there's been a bit of movement on this market, I'll try to find time for a test hike in the next couple weeks.

predicted NO

@Alice Sounds good! My understanding is it wouldn't resolve YES even if you maintain your fitness level on this particular hike, right?

predicted YES

@EliasSchmied Right, if it goes well, the market stays open. If it goes badly, I'll resolve no immediately.

bought Ṁ85 of NO

Exercise is overrated. Enjoy your life!

(Or find a form of exercise you also enjoy.)

predicted NO

"I have no intention of ever doing hill sprints again unless I'm being chased by a moose." 😂

predicted YES

@JamesGrugett That was my Tuesday night, haha. We were hiking down Death Canyon with our headlamps when we saw lights glowing in the dark. And then they blinked. Two bull moose were blocking the trail, and when their eyes turned to face us and started moving closer ... I've never run so fast in my life.

bought Ṁ10 of YES

@Alice Whoa, I'm glad you're okay!

Anyway, exercise is not overrated, because usually exercise helps you enjoy your life! There are so many activity options, you just gotta find what's fun and intrinsically motivating. What have you tried so far?
(And for tracking your fitness level, maybe you can get a really rough cardio baseline using some running app--that sounds like the kind of thing that corresponds to time-per-elevation.)

predicted NO

@GavrielK I'm not so sure — people who exercise tend to be healthier and happier, but I'm pretty sure that's mostly genetic confounding. I.e. Good health causes you to exercise more, rather than the other way around. Most exercise studies are correlational rather than experimental, and so are just capturing this effect. And I do recall that exercise doesn't do much to keep your weight down.

So, my guess is exercise helps a lot less than people think.

Plus, in my experience, there is quick reversion to the mean — if I take a month off from lifting weights, then I lose much of my gains.

A third point is that cardio is a modern phenomenon undertaken by rich people mainly as a status game. They do it because it is hard and shows off conscientiousness. Marathon runners have to pay a premium in health insurance because it's not actually healthy to run that much.

In conclusion, moderate amounts of exercise could still be good for you, but it's definitely overrated, at least from a health perspective.

predicted YES

@GavrielK Thanks, that's a great point that exercise enables you to enjoy your life! All I care about is being in the Tetons, and being there for many years to come, and if exercise is the means to that end, I'll do it.

Walking is intrinsically enjoyable to me. And sledding! If I have a sport, of course it's the one where the only skill involved is sitting there. Everything else ranges from tolerable (climbing) to torturous (running).

predicted YES

@GavrielK My baseline for 1,000 feet of elevation gain in a mile (the threshold for what starts to feel steep) is 26 minutes. But that's the first 1,000 feet of the day. The more relevant metric is what pace I can maintain for a whole mountain when the terrain's terrible and the exhaustion's set in. Last season, 5 hours for 5,000 feet felt really comfortable and sustainable. So if I ever fall below these numbers, I'll immediately resolve to no.

predicted YES

@JamesGrugett Yeah, it's interesting you bring up marathons! The equivalent in the backpacking world is through-hiking, and it often winds up being a net negative for health. (Six months of surviving on beef jerky can't be great.) I don't think health or status are motivating enough for me, unfortunately. If I were to ever through-hike or attempt something that intense, it'd be purely for the experience.