resolved Jan 9

Can I start with zero experience and become a sculptor in one year?

This market resolves yes if the following markets all resolve yes.

Get Ṁ200 play money

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predicted NO

Well done! :-)

bought Ṁ500 of YES

This purchase offer market just resolved yes, which means all that’s left is making sculptures nine and ten, one of which needs to be figurative. (I am absolutely dreading the figurative one, and nothing since writing college application essays has felt so torturous.) I have one day left in my schedule dedicated to sculpting, unless I work some late nights or bring a bag of clay on the plane with me.

bought Ṁ500 YES from 85% to 95%
bought Ṁ50 of NO

@Alice I'll send you 1200M if you wait until January with sculpture 10

predicted YES

@justifieduseofFallibilism Oooh, that’s tempting, but I’m in too deep.

predicted NO

Why is this always higher than the markets it is based upon? Even if all the other markets are 100% correlated this market can't he higher than any of the other markets. Or am I being stupid and missing something?

predicted YES

@JustifieduseofFallibilism you're basically right, but also hedging is a thing

predicted YES

I’m taking a two-month break from sculpting, sadly.

predicted YES
bought Ṁ30 of NO

I sure hope the answer is no. If you can start from zero, with no skill, no body of work and no connections, and become 'a sculptor' in a year, that doesn't say much for sculptors as a field.

Good luck to you I hope you have a good year. I just hope the craft you have chosen takes you longer than a year to learn.

predicted YES

@DanSparkman "Becoming a sculptor" is defined by arbitrary goals in these markets, but they're all beginner-level. Basic competence shouldn't be confused for mastery. It's like learning how to play an instrument. If someone took a few piano lessons and could play some songs, that's a great start! But it doesn't discount how much skill professional pianists have, and it doesn't diminish music as a field.

predicted YES

@DanSparkman If sculpture turns out to be something I enjoy, I hope I have many more years, too!

bought Ṁ5 of NO

"earn any recognition from the art world" is definitely the hardest one of these criterion to meet

predicted NO

@jonsimon *criteria

@jonsimon Yeah, it's also the one that's least within my control.