1
Will Iran have a regime change by the end of 2024?
5
closes 2024
18%
chance

Here are the requirements for an event to be called regime change in Iran:

  • The event must result in the overthrow of the current government of Iran.

  • The new government must be established through popular support or through a negotiated settlement.

  • The new government must be recognized by the international community.

Sort by:
RobertCousineau avatar
Robert Cousineaubought Ṁ10 of NO

How do you define regime change? (Who will you look to as a source?

RobertCousineau avatar
Robert Cousineauis predicting NO at 5000.0%

@RobertCousineau also, you may want to N/A or cancel one of these markets (two ended up being made).

Alghenab avatar
Alghenab

@RobertCousineau thank you I'm such a noob here

Alghenab avatar
Alghenab

@RobertCousineau
Here are the requirements for an event to be called regime change in Iran:

  • The event must result in the overthrow of the current government of Iran.

  • The new government must be established through popular support or through a negotiated settlement.

  • The new government must be recognized by the international community.

RobertCousineau avatar
Robert Cousineauis predicting NO at 34%

@Alghenab those look like good criteria!

Related markets

Will the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran fall by the end of 2024?16%
Will the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran fall by the end of 2023?8%
Will Ali Khameini cease to be Supreme Leader of Iran by the end of 2024?20%
Will Iran conduct a nuclear weapons test by the end of 2024?16%
Will Iran have a nuclear weapon by the end of 2040?66%
Will Iran conduct a nuclear weapons test by the end of 2023?8%
Will Iran conduct a nuclear weapons test by the end of 2025?24%
Will Iran be a democracy in 2030?24%
Conditional on Ali Khamenei dying in 2023, will the Iranian regime collapse?23%
Will Ali Khamenei remain Supreme Leader of Iran through December 31, 2024?67%
Will Ali Khamenei remain Supreme Leader of Iran through December 31st, 2025?62%
Will Ali Khamenei remain Supreme Leader of Iran through December 31st, 2023?85%
Will the Supreme Leader of Iran Ali Khamenei die in 2023?19%
Will Iran have a nuclear weapon by 2030?63%
12. Will Ali Khameini cease to be Supreme Leader of Iran in 2023?12%
Will Iranian citizens start a full fledged revolution before summer in hopes to remove the IR regime?12%
Will Iran agree to a plan limiting their nuclear program before 2023?10%
Will the US lift all sanctions on Iran before 2029?32%
Will Israel launch air strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities by 2024?17%
Will Ali Khamenei remain Supreme Leader of Iran through June 30, 2023?89%