Alexander Raymond's calibration
Grade: D, Score: -8.62
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Alexander Raymond bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
- Will Neuralink begin recruitment for the clinical trial of its brain implants by the end of Jul 15, 2023?NOṀ100
- Will the US impose broad sanctions against any new countries in 2023?NOṀ100
- Will North Korea fire missiles that travel directly above land internationally recognized as Japan in 2023?NOṀ60
70%