Will the NYTimes Wordle for March 21 start with a vowel?
20
168
Ṁ128
resolved Mar 21
Resolved
NO
I would like a hint whether the wordle for Monday, March 21, 2022 will start with a consonant or a vowel. Vowels are A E I O U and sometimes Y; if the word starts with Y, then I will flip a coin to resolve the market. There are spoiler lists for Wordle that I don't want to look at; also the NYTimes staff can (and has) changed the word list.
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bought Ṁ20 of NO
Wordle is up, the word doesn't start with a vowel.
bought Ṁ10 of NO
Such a SLOSHy market.
bought Ṁ20 of YES
hell yeah
bought Ṁ26 of NO
Apparently you can paint-the-tape here? Anyhow, I'm starting to believe the NO votes.
bought Ṁ10 of YES
Is he bluffing? https://manifold.markets/Gurkenglas/will-alex-power-resolve-all-of-his
bought Ṁ55 of YES
An alien from the planet Jupiter just told me that the word is definitely going to be ERROR. I'm voting yes. On the other hand, perhaps, it was an error in the surveillance equipment.
bought Ṁ1,000 of NO
I can bet good money it will be the letter T
bought Ṁ369 of YES
Though NYTimes will not be picking a random word, adding up the vowels in a list of letters by "Relative Frequency As The First Letter Of An English Word Letter" indicates approximately 30.5% of words start with a vowel. A more accurate approach might be calculate the occurrence of vowels in a list of 5 letter words weighted by frequency of use.
bought Ṁ100 of NO
I haven't looked at the word list, but given other investor momentum I think I'll just jump on the bandwagon~

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