Alex Power's calibration
Grade: F, Score: -10.64
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Alex Power bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
- 18. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Ron DeSantis is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?NOṀ1,000
- 18. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Ron DeSantis is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?NOṀ899
- Will Elon Musk buy Twitter this year?YESṀ400
70%
80%
90%
95%
97%
99%