Alex Paton's calibration
Grade: B+, Score: -1.49
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Alex Paton bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
3%
5%
- Will Australia vote affirmatively to add an 'Indigenous Voice to Parliament' into the constitution during 2023?NOṀ5
- Will Australia vote affirmatively to add an 'Indigenous Voice to Parliament' into the constitution during 2023?NOṀ5
- Will Australia vote affirmatively to add an 'Indigenous Voice to Parliament' into the constitution during 2023?NOṀ5
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
- Will an AI system, product, company, concept, or affiliated person be TIME's Person of The Year for 2023?NOṀ50
- Will Elon Musk get twitter.com to redirect to x.com by 1st January 2024?NOṀ40
- Will Australia vote affirmatively to add an 'Indigenous Voice to Parliament' into the constitution during 2023?NOṀ25
70%
- Will the Great Mosque of Gaza be under Israeli control before July 2024?YESṀ35
- The trump case will become boring and fade from the news. <50% search volume in 3 monthsYESṀ30
- Will there be a big story in a significant media outlet denouncing AI-generated porn that attracts significant public discussion by the end of 2023?YESṀ30
80%
90%
95%