Resolution criteria

This market is an independent multiple-choice market. Each listed prop resolves YES if its specified condition occurs between 00:00:00 UTC on November 9, 2026, and 23:59:59 UTC on November 15, 2026. Otherwise, that prop resolves NO.

• Trump Cabinet Member is impeached or announces departure: Resolves YES if the U.S. House of Representatives votes to approve at least one article of impeachment against any confirmed member of the Cabinet of Donald Trump, or if an official announcement, statement, or credible direct confirmation is made by the White House or the official indicating their resignation, firing, or planned departure within the specified dates.

• Jensen Huang steps down or announces resignation: Resolves YES if NVIDIA Corporation issues an official press release, SEC filing, or CEO statement announcing that Jensen Huang is stepping down, resigning, or being replaced as Chief Executive Officer.

• Senate passes permitting-reform legislation based on BAAJA: Resolves YES if the United States Senate votes to pass the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act of 2026 (S. 5653 / BAAJA) or a substitute amendment bearing its core text, verified via Congress.gov or official Senate roll call records.

• New AI model released that beats Gemini Carbon by ≥3 points on AA Intelligence Index: Resolves YES if any new artificial intelligence model is publicly released and logged on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index with an overall Intelligence Index score that is at least 3.0 points higher than Gemini 4 Carbon's score on that same version of the index within the window.

Any newly added answers will resolve YES if verified by credible official records or primary reporting according to their plain text before the end of November 15, 2026 UTC, and NO otherwise.

Background

• BAAJA: The Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act of 2026 (introduced as S. 5653 by Senators Shelley Moore Capito, Mike Lee, Martin Heinrich, and Sheldon Whitehouse) targets federal permitting reform, transmission buildouts, and NEPA judicial review limitations. Negotiators introduced a formal substitute amendment ahead of floor consideration scheduled for the post-midterm lame-duck session starting November 9, 2026.

• Gemini 4 Carbon: Google DeepMind launched Gemini 4 Carbon in late October 2026, taking the top spot on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index v5 with an initial score near 59–60. A subsequent release would need to register at least 3 points above Carbon's score on the Artificial Analysis leaderboard during the target week to trigger that option.