Manifold plays chess 1.d4 d5 2.

Basic

Ṁ1045

resolved Sep 29

100%90%

3%Other

1.5%

Bf4

ANTE

1.0%

Nf3

0.1%

Resign, claim my opponent is cheating

0.1%

0.2%

Nb3

Your move

1.d4 d5

You (Manifold) have been challenged to a game of chess! You'll be white playing me (Alex) a ~2000 lichess player who will not use any outside assistance.

After the market close I will generate a random number and the move corresponding to that percentage will be picked. For example, order the moves from highest percentage to lowest. Then to find a moves range you sum the percentages that are greater which give you the lower end of the range than add the percentage of the move itself to get the higher end of the range.

Sep 29, 5:01am:

Random number from 1-971... is 218. so C4 was selected.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#Fun

#Manifold plays chess

Get

1,000

and

3.00

9 Comments

10 Holders

41 Trades

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@AlexLiesman is there a market for "who will win AlexLiesman's Manifold Plays Chess" game yet? If not, would you like to do the honors or should I?

@citrinitas Go ahead, that sounds like a good market! Maybe Win/Lose/Draw/[something breaks]

Technically I think the notation is "resigned", as accusations of cheating aren't part of the game.

@RobinFoster Maybe if we lose then it makes him feel happy and then he starts another game to continue feeling happy about beating a prediction market that is not incentivized to beat him. Or maybe we should go on strike until the antes are larger. I don't think we have enough information to conclude what maximizes the amount of mana we get out of him.

Or perhaps that means the incentive is to go for a long drawn out obvious line that can't lose, rather than actually try to win.

I guess the incentive to try to win is Alex's subsidies. If we lose then he stops making the markets so we lose the opportunity to benefit from those antes.

@MartinRandall Keynsian Beauty Contest. Trying to guess what others will guess that you would guess that others would...

@FranekZak Kbc?

The problem with this is I don't see any incentive to play for the win - it's essentially a repeated KBC, no?

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