Before expiration of this market, will a local/national news outlet or a substack with at least 200k subscribers publish an article seriously asking what a Russian national was doing in the middle of a street fight in Cincinnati at 3am on July 26th (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/news/2025/07/31/pictured-white-woman-beaten-cincinnati-jazz-festival/)

The article doesn't have to get picked up by other outlets or present a strong case. It only needs to make an earnest attempt to investigate the question while meeting basic journalistic standards of fact-checking and citing sources.

Currently, though "Holly's” nationality is mentioned in some news articles, it is not commented on further-- e.g. how usual/unusual this is relative to the number of Russian tourists in the US each year. Given that Russia is a geopolitical rival of the United States, and given that Internet Research Agency has in the past deliberately attempted to provoke racial confrontations by organizing BLM and anti-BLM flash mobs in the same locations, it seems like it wouldn't be that much of a stretch for them to attempt such a thing more directly.

I will not bet on this market.