This market resolves YES if by the end of this year, I both
Am accepted to the SERI MATS extensions phase, and
Decide to join the SERI MATS extension phase this year (instead of doing something else)
NO otherwise.
1,000
3.00I currently find other opportunities more exciting.
Specifically, I want to try:
Other types of research (especially empirical alignment research in areas like scalable oversight)
Seeking collaboration with or mentorship from (many?) different existing researchers with diverse/different research views
Making concrete progress on control and deploy-time interventions
Clarifying my worldview disagreements with existing alignment thinkers (how useful/helpful is ~human-level AIs? how dangerous are they? how likely are misuse scenarios? will FOOM happen?)
Improving my understanding of the whole alignment problem
As a result, I haven’t yet applied to enter the MATS extension phase.
It is very plausible that I will change my mind, but it’s already November.
@Alana In fact, it seems plausible that this market should be trading <10%, since I imagine a SERI MATS extension phase would not begin before the winter MATS cohort, which (IIRC) is in January.