Will I join the SERI MATS extension phase this year?
resolved Jan 1

This market resolves YES if by the end of this year, I both

  1. Am accepted to the SERI MATS extensions phase, and

  2. Decide to join the SERI MATS extension phase this year (instead of doing something else)

NO otherwise.

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I currently find other opportunities more exciting.

Specifically, I want to try:

  • Other types of research (especially empirical alignment research in areas like scalable oversight)

  • Seeking collaboration with or mentorship from (many?) different existing researchers with diverse/different research views

  • Making concrete progress on control and deploy-time interventions

  • Clarifying my worldview disagreements with existing alignment thinkers (how useful/helpful is ~human-level AIs? how dangerous are they? how likely are misuse scenarios? will FOOM happen?)

  • Improving my understanding of the whole alignment problem

As a result, I haven’t yet applied to enter the MATS extension phase.

It is very plausible that I will change my mind, but it’s already November.

@Alana In fact, it seems plausible that this market should be trading <10%, since I imagine a SERI MATS extension phase would not begin before the winter MATS cohort, which (IIRC) is in January.

@Alana @Voidvamp @Alucard666 Some free alpha