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MANIFOLD
which will happen first? (Codeforces Rating)
4
Ṁ100Ṁ144
2027
9%
Yao Ye hits 1900 rating on codeforces
85%
I hit 2100 rating on codeforces
6%
above events happen at the same time

self-explanatory market, if Yao Ye hits 1900 rating on codeforces for the first time before I hit 2100 for the first time, resolves 'Yao Ye hits 1900 rating on codeforces,' vice versa if I hit 2100 before he hits 1900. Resolves 'above events happen at the same time' if and only if we hit the respective ratings on the same contest.

Some info:

here is my codeforces profile: https://codeforces.com/profile/2-qiym, I'm on a bit of a rating fall off right now

here is Yao Ye's profile: https://codeforces.com/profile/rninversec. He

is improving at exceptional speed, already 1600 after basically only one year of competitive programming

as of now we both plan to do basically codeforces contests fairly frequently.

To ensure I'm not incentivised to do poorly, I will only allow myself to buy yes on the 'I hit 2100 rating on codeforces' option, and no on others. I will not sell any of my shares.

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