Agh's calibration
Grade: A, Score: -0.41
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Agh bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
1%
- Unexpected Rationalussy Paradox: If EY first tweets rationalussy in the last 5 days of 2023, will the day be a surprise?NOṀ20
- Will Destiny re-dye his blue hair [YES] or chop it of [NO] (neither will result in N/A)NOṀ19
- Will Mark Zuckerberg be revealed to be an evil mud monster mage named "Dark Muckerberg" by the end of 2023?NOṀ10
3%
5%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
95%
97%