In my survey (n=625k), did older people report being more polyamorous than younger people?
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resolved Dec 4
Resolved
YES

I did a coin flip to determine the orientation of the question (like, more poly vs less poly)

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@Aella Can this resolve?

predicted YES

@EvanDaniel https://manifold.markets/Aella?tab=questions&f=closed

I've got a lot of mana tied up in these markets 💀 they can't be moderator resolved, either

predicted YES
bought Ṁ559 of YES
predicted NO

How does this resolve if the effect size isn't statistically significant?

predicted YES

@kaizen It is, she knew the answer before making the question

surprising lack of reasoning given in the comments. can people elaborate?

predicted YES

@Dockson I remember a stream with Destiny where she went over data that clearly showed YES. I can't find it though, so I may have seen it in a dream.

Definition of younger vs older?

@c0m +1 Also one might expect a non-linear effect (e.g. polyamory peaks at a certain age and is lower before and after).

@DavidMoss This is precisely the expected pattern if it’s not really related to age per se but to time (it was popular in a certain age group at some point in time for whatever reason).

@mariopasquato I agree you could see a pattern like that due to confounds unrelated to age (like cohort effects). In theory these would be disentangleable, but I'd imagine the single survey data Aella has wouldn't allow an APC analysis.

But a non-linear age effect specifically seems pretty plausible. For example, changes in the big-5 across the lifespan are non-linear, certain moral views seem to trough around college age and peak in one's 30s (though I'm sceptical of the data in various ways https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09515089.2016.1174843), and I'd expect polyamory attitudes to be related to important life stages (e.g. reproduction, childrearing) in ways which might cause peaks and troughs at particular points, rather than a linear effect. I also think it's plausible that people come to explore increasingly more things initially over time (starting at a relatively young age), before becoming more conservative as they get older.