AdventureX6's calibration
Grade: B-, Score: -3.89
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when AdventureX6 bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
- Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of 2022?YESṀ100
- Will Destiny have more than 597k subscribers by December 15?YESṀ100
- Will The Destiny Video "Destiny Debates A Confident But Clearly Wrong Conservative On Brexit And Ukraine" Reach 100k Views By Market Close Of 02/26/2023 at 11:59pm ESTNOṀ55
90%