Adir Yitzhak's calibration
Grade: B+, Score: -1.44
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Adir Yitzhak bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
3%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
- Will Destiny Reach 605K Subscribers By the End Of 2022?NOṀ95
- Will Destiny talk to "The Podcast of the Lotus Eaters" (two people grilling his and Melina's relationship at the beginning of today's stream) in January?NOṀ50
- Will Destiny's main channel have at least three 300k views or higher video by the end of January?YESṀ50
80%
90%