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@Abhijeet This question should not be closed until he is sworn in as the new PM

@KungurRail It seems the intention from the creator was to close the market today since the election has concluded. This is pretty normal. Though you can reach out to the creator to see if they wish to extend, but there is nothing wrong with it being closed and the creator is under no obligation to reopen the market. The predictions were made, if something changes for some reason that changes the outcome than it would still resolve correctly to either Yes or No.

Additionally if anyone thought the % was too high, there was plenty of time to predict it down with Mana based on the timestamps of the conversation below before the market closed.

@SirCryptomind fair point

*edit: on further thought, its weird how I conflated "expected resolution date" with "closing date". Although I fail to see how deliberately setting an early closing date affects market dynamics (other than the fact that you literally cannot buy/sell anymore)

@KungurRail there's a school of thought that doesn't like seeing people reacting to news making more profit than people making predictions. That's usually what this is.

(I think it does affect market dynamics a little, because some of the most active and solvent traders on Manifold are probably less likely to bet if they know they can't pull their mana out after the result is announced)

https://x.com/zoo_bear/status/1798031632982786511
I simply don't believe 96% is accurate. Maybe high 80s.

NDA alliance rests on the continued support of the JDU and TDP, along with others. Surprised this is still polling at 99%

@Anime How much you think it should be? Are you from India?

@NielS I am!

I would probably say 75%?

NDA stays in power only if both the mentioned parties + others continue to support them.

INDIA would have to poach both plus others to get to 272 (@235 now), but may offer more to the turncoats than the BJP.

No one would want a hung assembly which will happen if only one of these parties switch.

There is ofc a chance that the BJP poached members of the INDIA alliance too.

But 97-99% is too high…

@Anime nah Modi is the face of BJP. Noone can take his place rn. TDP will be supporting along with JDU. So they go beyond 272 mark of majority easily. They are not stupid enough to leave this 5 Yr stable gov train to join unstable many party alliance.

According to a recent India Today-CVoter Mood of the Nation survey, the BJP, led by Modi, is projected to win 287 seats in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, which would be enough for a simple majority. The survey also found that Modi is the most popular choice for Prime Minister, with 61% of respondents saying they would prefer him to lead the country.

Other factors that could favor Modi in 2024 include:

• The BJP's strong organizational machinery

• The government's focus on infrastructure development and social welfare schemes

• Modi's personal charisma and popularity

• The BJP has won the last seven consecutive state assembly elections.

• The BJP has a strong majority in the Rajya Sabha, the upper house of the Indian Parliament.

• Modi has a high approval rating among the Indian public. A recent poll by Pew Research Center found that 72% of Indians approve of Modi's job performance.

@Vidhisejpal I agree with your bet that Narendra Modiji will serve as the Prime Minister of India in 2024. According to an article, from Reuters surveys indicate that Modis popularity remains strong after being in power for a decade and it is likely that he will secure a term. The article also mentions that although the BJP faces challenges the results will demonstrate peoples trust in Modis governance. Another survey conducted by India Today CVoter Mood of the Nation suggests that the BJP led NDA is expected to win a majority of seats with the BJP itself surpassing the required number of seats for a majority. While there are opposing perspectives and alliances attempting to defeat Modi overall sentiments from surveys and reports point towards Narendra Modi winning a term, as Prime Minister in 2024.

Jain, R. (2023, November 7). Indian states vote in key test for Modi and rivals ahead of 2024 general election. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/indian-states-vote-key-test-modi-rivals-ahead-2024-general-election-2023-11-07/

Chengappa, R. (2023, September 5). How Narendra Modi looks all set to return in 2024. India Today. https://www.indiatoday.in/india-today-insight/story/how-narendra-modi-looks-all-set-to-return-in-2024-2431344-2023-09-05

He has already been the PM of India twice. It's time for someone young and new to step up.

This market is ambiguous, it does not list resolution criteria for the case if the BJP comes to power but Modi is not the prime minister.

The question and resolution criteria are inconsistent here. Maybe rephrase your question title to be about whether Modi gets reconfirmed